Monday, October 28, 2019

Are polls really useful?

Comment:

Polling accuracy depends on an accurate representation of the population at large.  It has to be so, because the number of people responding to the poll is so small in relation to the entire population.  If the numbers are off even a little, the poll will be skewed.

If 17% of the Democrats identify more with Trump, then how does it relate to his approval ratings?  The approval ratings tend to be based upon the percentage of Republicans and Democrats within the larger population.

Those who criticize Rasmussen say that there are too many Republicans in their samples.  Those who criticize the other polls say the Democrats are over-represented.

With this many Democrats agreeing more with Trump, it would appear that his supporters are under-represented in even the Rasmussen poll.  Trump's true numbers could be much higher than the ones being reported.

Trump's election was a big surprise to many in 2016.  Not to me.  This number of Democrats favoring him may be an indication of a phenomenon that I thought was possible back then.  Trump could be causing a realignment of the voting patterns.  If I am right, then Trump could win again even if the polls say he should lose.



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