SpaceX
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I think he will succeed.
But what would you do with something like that? If it is a heavy lift design, as he indicates that it would have to be, then it may be useful to deliver fuel to fuel depots.
It reminds me of the question I sent in to the Space Show with respect to the Sea Dragon. It was called "dreamy". If Musk accomplishes this, he will achieved what I was attempting to refer to with respect to the Sea Dragon--- low cost, but high volume of matter delivered to space. The sheer bulk would be useful as fuel.
With fuel, you can get anywhere in the solar system. But not necessarily fast.
For a trip to Mars, you need a million pounds per astronaut. For $500 pound to orbit, that 500 million bucks each. That means a crew of 4 could be sent to Mars for the fuel cost of 2 billion bucks.
The rest shouldn't be any heavier than the fuel. As a matter of fact, the biggest part of the cost is getting the fuel up there.
Mars will be conquered. When Musk says in 10 to 20 years, he ain't bullshitting. It's going to happen.
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