The X factor--- the human element

4/7/24:

I was going to post this exact same thing as a new post. Not that everything in that post would have been in this post as updated, but the general idea of an "X" factor definitely was the idea.

I would add another idea that hasn't caught on. That idea would be the Stirling Engine in automobiles. For some strange reason, they have not been adopted, but the Stirling Engine can be made to work just fine, and there's evidence to prove it. But DO note that nobody in the automotive industry is interested in it. Why not?

Until Elon Musk jumped into the automotive field with his battery powered cars, there was a decided reluctance to use them. In my opinion, batteries are too heavy for cars, but that hasn't stopped it from making a big splash. The enthusiasm is wearing off, however. I wouldn't throw out the battery in cars, but it might happen.

The best use for Stirling Engines would be in a hybrid, and the best use for batteries would be in a hybrid. Just my opinion, but my opinion is not just my opinion. Yet nobody that I know of in the automotive space is going to go this direction. It may take the "X" factor to bring that about. But who knows how long that will take?



end update of post dated 7/27/12:

When probing the reasons for why great ideas don't take hold, one may want to consider the NFL draft.  Each year, the National Football League holds a draft in order to select the most promising young players to develop into the next stars in the American game known as football.  The success in the draft is a key determinant in a team's success.  Millions of dollars are spent evaluating prospects.  Despite all this probing and measuring of talent, the process is hardly foolproof.  There some elusive factor in success which is not so easy to probe and measure.  It is this elusive quality that often gets missed during this expensive process.  As a consequence, many prized prospects don't make it, and some players become superstars, but are initially overlooked in this process.  It is this elusive quality that could be seen as an X factor-- an unknown and unpredictable quality that can go undetected.  It is a distinctly human element seen not only in sports, but in life in general.

So, when asking why the LFTR hasn't been adopted, this can be a reason given.  It is like the NFL draft.  Sometimes the best players get by the evaluation process.  Sometimes a highly touted player doesn't succeed as expected.  The same can be true for ideas.  The liquid thorium reactor may well be a superstar that has gotten overlooked.  It's failure to get noticed should not be seen as a failure of an idea, but instead, it is the failure of those who evaluate ideas to see the potential in it.

Back to the NFL draft, there's a player right here in Houston that wasn't even drafted.  Arian Foster is now considered to be one of the best running backs in the league.  He has made All Pro two years in a row.  But this same team spent a number one pick in the draft for David Carr, who never made it as a great quarterback in the league.  Other examples are Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. He was drafted in the sixth round, but should have been rated much higher.  He will be in the Hall of Fame some day.  Clearly, the process to pick the best players failed--- and you can't blame the team.  It failed Houston with Carr and failed again in the case of Arian Foster.

Besides the NFL, are there other examples in life where a highly rated person or idea fails, or an underdog succeeds surprisingly?  Consider presidential politics.  Harry Truman v. Thomas Dewey in 1948 could be an example.  In sports, perhaps the 1969 New York Mets could be another.  Or the 1980's Olympics, where the American hockey team beat the Soviet Union team.

In studying the idea of the LFTR, one can be amazed at the continual failure for good and accurate information to be communicated to the public.  The public is misled on the risks of nuclear power, as it can be seen in previous posts.  The public is also misled about the ability of solar and wind to provide the necessary amount of energy needed to power an advanced technological society.  Consequently, billions of dollars are wasted on solar projects like Solyndra, yet LFTR technology goes begging for money needed to complete the commercialization of LFTR technology.  It is not the amount of money that gets spent, but the quality of thinking behind the spending of the money.  How can the public make the best possible political decisions when there is so much false and misleading information being put out?  Success in evaluation is difficult even with the best possible information, as can be seen with the NFL.

Besides false information, there could also be the hostility of the incumbency.  The Tiberius Syndrome comes to mind.  During the Roman Empire, the Emperor Tiberius had a man beheaded for bringing him an idea on how to commercially mine aluminum.  Tiberius saw the new metal as a threat to his interests.  The superiority of the invention was not in question.  Clearly, under some circumstances such as this, a superior idea does not get adopted.  The commercialization of aluminum had to wait for 2000 years.

So, if it isn't just simple human error, it could actually be something more serious, like outright hostility.  In either case, it is the human element that leads to a failure--- not the idea itself.  Even with an active means of finding the best possible outcome, like drafting the best possible athletes for a professional football team, you could still go wrong.  But life is not just a game.  It could be a matter of life and death.  We have to do better than the Romans, unless we want to be like the Romans.