Wave election?

Scott Rasmussen has an article up at Townhall, which analyzes the prospects going forward in the upcoming 2018 election.

He says only 45 out of the 435 seats are competitive.  There are 187 likely Dem seats that won't flip GOP.  Rasmussen says that nine more are "leaning in that direction".  This also means that the GOP could flip those, if things don't go the Dems way.  Assuming all of those go Democrat, then they got 196.  They need 22 more.  He identifies 17 races that could flip to the Dem side supposedly.  In a normal cycle, this would still not be enough, as it would only bring them to 213.  The Dems need a "wave" that would swamp those that were considered safe during a normal cycle.  There are 19 of those, he says.  They would have to win approximately one out of four safe seats.

What I get from all of this is that Dems have to depend upon everything going right for them.  Furthermore, they would have to depend upon the GOP being grossly incompetent.

Both things are going to be necessary.  Merely being lucky won't be enough for them.  On the GOP side, mere competence could be enough to hold on.  If they are brilliant, it will be another disappointment for the left.