Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Cruz wins Iowa

The thing that is most significant about this is that Trump didn't win.  Trump needed a quick knockout blow.  Three straight victories in the early states could have put him on that track.  Now, he won't get that.  He is in a race now.  The longer it goes, the less it plays to his strengths.

As for that last sentence, I get it from Dick Morris.  Morris thinks that Trump does better in large fields than in a two or three man race.   Once all the also-rans get eliminated, it becomes more of the latter than the former, which isn't good for Trump.

Cruz needs to keep Rubio at bay, and stay close to Trump.  Then he may take it away from Trump, unless Trump can up his game quite a bit.

New Hampshire could really muddy things up, or clear things up.  If Rubio finishes ahead of Cruz in New Hampshire, it muddies it up.  Cruz really needs to stay close to Trump and in second.  But Cruz won't win New Hampshire.

The main thing to take away from this is that it is a real race now.  Trump won't sweep the board, he has to work hard for victory now.  It is also possible that he won't even win the nomination.

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