Chris will allow his subscribers to reproduce up to 10% of his newsletter as long as they give him credit for it and a link to his site. If you want more, you'll have to get a subscription. I haven't been posting any of his material here, but I will include a little this time in order to give you a sample of what he writes. So, here we go. This is probably far less than 10% and it is only the list of topics discussed, so here goes:
Newsletter - Edition 246 - 19 December 2010
By Christopher Laird
Rising interest rates – what might we expect?
The Plaza Accord
China interest rate hike due
Korea
My positions
Oil
Shanghai and other “emerging markets”
And there it is. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. He does a good job and it is well worth a read. Now, I want to discuss a little of some of these topics here.
Let's start from the top, with interest rates. As I wrote earlier, I would not be a buyer of bonds. I am already on record there. check
The Plaza Accord wasn't really any different policy than what the US has been doing since Nixon closed the gold window in the early 70's. Guess what? Inflation followed that. We thought we had inflation beat, but it will definitely come back. Why? Have you heard of Quantitative Easing? Same thing. check
I am not well researched on China. My impression is that China will import US inflation as long as they allow their currency to be linked to the dollar. The same will hold true for all of our trading partners. The only way to preserve their markets here is to enter the race to the bottom of competitive devaluation. If they decide to stop playing along with that game, the musical chairs scenario will leave the US dollar as the last one standing. That's not where you want to be in that game. Just my opinion folks. So, China may raise rates, but it won't be effective in stopping inflation there. They aren't serious, but when they do get serious, look out. check
Korea doesn't interest me much, except for the stability issue. If war breaks out, it is not good. check
I don't disclose my stock or financial positions here. This isn't a market advisory service. I give my opinions for free, you can read it for entertainment, amusement, or what have you. check
As for oil, I have felt for many years that this is a show stopper for the US economy. If our fearless leaders don't get their rears in gear, we will continue having problems. This problem has been talked about since I was in school back in the 70's. For once, our leaders need to step up to the plate, and deal with this problem. I won't hold my breath. check
Emerging markets is just not my bag, baby. A little Austin Powers lingo there. So, there you are. My reaction to Chris' newsletter. If you subscribe, you can read his stuff and mine and compare notes. I think he is more of a pro at this because he has been doing it a long time. Not trying to grab his glory, just expressing my own opinions. check
No comments:
Post a Comment