quote ( and pdf link):
Galston asks this important question: What kind of election will 2012 be? The answer, according to Galston, is that this election is shaping up to a referendum on President Obama and his record and policy accomplishments, and that 2012 will be more like 2004, a “classic mobilization election,” rather than one involving heavy persuasion to swing voters and independents.
Comment:
I'm reading the pdf now. It is over 25 pages, so it will take a little while. I'll update if there's anything new I want to say about it.
Update:
Finished the pdf. It is basically a welcome read for Democrats, not so much for Republicans. I looked for evidence of bias, as I don't recall the Brookings Institute as having a conservative reputation.
But, I won't look at it that way because it seems to be bad news. It seems incredible, but true, that people may reelect somebody who puts in a bad performance. This may well be the case this year. In such cases as that, something else is in play besides economics.
One thing you can get from this is that from a demographic viewpoint, the Republicans have a significant problem. The Democrats have managed to slice off significant populations and these populations are fairly loyal to the party.
As for the Republicans, I never felt that they made the same kind of appeal. That appeal is known as identity politics. Although Republicans are accused of being racist, sexist, and bigoted, this is greatly exaggerated, if not totally false. If anything, it is the other way around. That will draw a lot of fire, most likely, but I think of it as projection. The Democrats reject those attributes in others, but fail to see it in themselves.
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