Friday, February 17, 2012

Is US Navy helping or hindering Israel's response to Iran?

The thought occurred to me that the US Navy's ships are not well-suited for a conflict such as the possible one in the Strait of Hormuz.  An aircraft carrier is a big weapon, but that is not the advantage one may think in close quarters.  It is like a knife fight with a pistol, the pistol is no advantage if the knife wielder is close enough.

The strait is rather narrow and the Iranians are well supplied with anti-ship weapons.  Now these could be tough to defend against in sufficient number and at close quarters.  It may simply overwhelm the Navy's defensive capabilities. In addition, the Iranians have submarines that are well suited for this type of defense.  Throw in a swarming surface flotilla of small speedboats and the Navy just might have their hands full dealing with all of the threats simultaneously.

It would seem that the Navy would need to stand off a distance, which would mean no transit through the strait.

The Israelis may be thinking this as well.  Perhaps the Iranians would retaliate against any possible attack by Israel with a shutdown of the strait.  If the US attempts to break that, they may be entering a type of trap.  Thus, the Israelis have to be thinking that they could get the US Navy in a bit of a pickle with any attack that they make.  Would this restrain the Israelis?

The other side of this is whether of not the US Navy would help the Israelis with an attack.  But this seems doubtful with the current administration.  Thus, the US Navy in the Persian Gulf doesn't help the Israelis and may actually inhibit their actions.

Why would Obama be sending ships into the Persian Gulf?  Does he know there's a risk of a loss of a ship?  Or maybe even more than one?  Why take this chance?  It can't be because he likes to keep the oil flowing.  After all, he shut down the Keystone pipeline project.

A rather dark thought is that he wouldn't mind the Iranians getting the bomb.  He's restraining the Israelis and tempting the Iranians with a big, fat target.  These ships are hard to replace if they are lost.  One may want to take care in how they are deployed.  But this administration seems content with a mostly symbolic show of force.  Yet, this could backfire if it turns out that the Iranians have other ideas about symbolism.  The Twin Towers had  a symbolic value, which is why Al Qaeda attacked them.  Although the Iranians and Al Qaeda aren't necessarily the same thing, they do think alike sometimes.  This could be one of those times.  Al Qaeda was successful in bringing down the Twin Towers.  Why take a needless risk with the Navy's ships?

What does Obama care about the oil?  If he cared so much about that, why isn't he pushing for more domestic oil sources?

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