Sunday, September 11, 2011

Total Employment Stats During Last Decade

Clearly Obama inherited a bad situation.  But there was job growth in the Bush Administration.  The recession did not roll back the all the gains made during Bush's two terms.  However, Obama's Administration has not presided over any meaningful job growth.  We are stuck at about the point, in terms of total employment, that we were in at the end of the first Bush term.

You would expect some job growth by now.  Bush inherited a weakening economy.  By the end of his first term, there was substantial job growth.  So, the question is: why can't Obama do the same?

This question is what can drive a debate.  The Obama Administration has opted for another round of stimulus, but the stimulus thus far has not generated new jobs.  To add to the dilemma, the debt is now seen as out of control, which limits how much new stimulus can be added.  Why ask for more?  Shouldn't he be trying something new?  What will be the true nature of any debate about the employment situation?

In my opinion, the new stimulus proposals are political, not economic.  Obama wants to continue to blame Republicans for his current difficulties.  He demands that which he knows he won't get.  That refusal will be used as grist for the political mill.  That will be a political strategy for the election, not an economic one for the unemployed.  Politics doesn't explain why there had not been any economic growth prior to the Republicans taking over in 2011.  Democrats had all the political levers for the first two years of the Obama Administration.

Obama is not seeking to answer why there hasn't been any job growth.  He is seeking a political answer, not an economic one.  The political answer is blame his opponents.  In order to get new economic policy, Obama will have to be defeated.  He can't or won't suggest new strategies.  If Obama remains, it will be more spending, more debt, higher taxes and more stringent regulations.  The record shows that this has not generated new jobs.  But Obama's political strategy may allow him to keep his job, but how does that help anybody else with theirs?


Last employment report during Clinton Administration, Bush Admin begins on Jan. 20, 2001

Looks like 4 million new jobs during Bush's first term

Add almost another 4 million by the end of the Bush Administration.   At the peak, 11 million jobs were created.    Looks like a loss of 3 million from the peak.   Recession had begun and in progress for a year at this point.

At the trough of the recession, 7 million jobs lost.  Four more million added to the 3 million lost while Bush was still President.  By the election of 2010, job losses stopped, but job growth had not begun.

And jobs still are not being created.  From the trough in the recession, perhaps a million jobs have been created.  Now there's talk of a double dip recession.

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