Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Divergence in the markets, what does it mean?



Definition of DIVERGE
intransitive verb
1a : to move or extend in different directions from a common point : draw apart 
  b : to become or be different in character or form : differ in opinion
 2: to turn aside from a path or course : deviate
 3: to be mathematically divergent


Since this economic crisis began, which is now going on three years, there has been two conflicting schools of thought.  One of the schools said that we were experiencing a deflationary depression scenario; the other, a stagflationary or inflationary depression.   Hence, at times, we get divergent trends in the markets, which reflect the conflicting theories.  At times, stocks and bonds are traded in such a way as to support one point of view, whereas at other times, gold and precious metals are traded which support the other.

However, these divergent trends are not always obvious.  At the very beginning, in 2008, the trends were in synch briefly, with gold falling precipitously along with stocks.  But gold regained its footing and resumed its uptrend, which began originally in 2001.   From that point on, and until the bottom was reached, and stocks began to rally, the divergence disappeared.  Subsequently, stocks rallied, alongside with gold.  The markets seemed to be saying, the deflationary depression scenario was out of the picture, now the markets appeared to be in sych again.  

But talk continued about gold being in a bubble.  Its rally was seen to be invalid.  But there were others who thought that stocks and bonds were in a bubble, with the fundamentals unfavorable to the bullish case.  Both cannot be right at the same time.  One or the other must yield to reality.  But there is no consensus on what the reality actually is.

We now have divergent trends again, which suggest that the situation is about to change.  For we cannot have stocks and bonds trading the bearish scenario on the prospect of deflationary depression, while at the same time, gold seems to be going vertical, suggesting dollar collapse.   If the dollar were in danger of collapse, people should be getting out of bonds in a hurry.  For each dollar would have less purchasing power.

From appearances, the two outliers for the moment at least, appears to be gold and bonds.  Gold as mentioned, appears to be going parabolic.   Bonds are at historic low yields.  By definition, a parabolic condition is unstable.  It must yield eventually.  But what about bonds?

Why should anyone purchase bonds when there is a negative interest rate?  This doesn't make sense, but it might if governments were doing it.  What governments?  Is the USA doing it again?  Doubtful, but it would make a lot of sense if foreign governments did it.  They would want to support the dollar in order to protect their markets here.  A disastrous fall in the dollar would cause the prices for their exports to the USA to become too expensive for American consumers.  That would hurt exporters badly.

Stocks have taken a beating, but there isn't any long term trend in effect.  Since 2000, the market has topped out.  It may yet retest the 2009 lows, but for the moment, it is within all time ranges.  Stocks do not fall into this divergence, yet. 

But something has to give.  Is there inflation, or not?  Is the dollar secure, or is it about to fall precipitously?  Will the government address the debt situation convincingly?  All these questions cannot be answered yet.  Hence, the conflicting signals.  It will take awhile for this to settle out.  In the meantime, the divergences most likely will continue. 

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