Space politics as a canary in the coal mine

Like a lot of things, the wheels seem to come off after Clinton left office.  This may surprise people who see this blog as a right wing blog.  Why would I write that?  This blog isn't going to be a blindly partisan blog.  The objective evidence exists, why deny it?  Things were going much better before Bush took office.  So, do I blame Bush for it?  This is too simplistic an analysis.  It is the one most people will make.  People will say that if it happens on his watch, it must be his fault.  I want to go deeper than that.

History didn't start on January 20, 2001 when Bush took office.  In terms of the manned space program, what did Bush inherit?  He inherited the Shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS).  The Shuttle had a history that predated Clinton's administration, but the ISS was mostly a Clinton initiative.  As for the Shuttle, it first flew in 1981, so it was 20 year old system by the time Bush came into office.  The Challenger disaster happened during the Reagan administration.  But other than that, it had a safe and productive operational history.  The ISS was still under construction.  The Shuttle was being used in large part to build it.

The wheels started coming off with the Columbia Accident.  Now, instead of being an anomaly, there were two catastrophic failures with the loss of two crews and two Shuttles.  There were the investigations of each and the results of each investigation.  The result of the last investigation was the conclusion that the Shuttle needed to be retired.  So, the question arose, what comes next?

Let's start with the Columbia Accident Investigation Board.  This is guidance for what came next, which was the Constellation program, which in turn, was recently cancelled by the Obama Administration.  I haven't read this yet.  The question I want to answer is this:  was the Constellation program a good response to the problem with the Shuttles, or was it a bad response?  What was good about it?  What was bad about it? 

After studying that, I can merge that with what I have already produced on this blog.  I have looked at the Augustine Commission and gave my opinion on that.  The Augustine Commission is the most recent guidance on future manned exploration of space.  But it isn't necessary the last word.  Politics being what it is, some adjustments are inevitable.  The political problems we are facing now are related to cost efficiency.  The previous questions related to safety.  Now the question is a matter of economics.  Combining these two factors together poses the ultimate question.  Is manned space exploration worth the risk in terms of human life and economic costs and benefits?  

I think that it is.  Not only that, but our future as a species may depend upon it.  If we fail, then we may fail as a species.  We may meet the fate of the dinosaurs.  But why the failure?  Is it possible to succeed?  Is it feasible politically?  Never mind the costs and benefits.  This question relates to the ability of human beings to do what it takes to survive as a species.  It is a collective problem.  It affects everyone on this planet.  It may well be technically and economically possible to explore and colonize space, but that is meaningless if it isn't politically possible.

Politics is often driven by economics.  If the economics of manned space exploration won't work, then the politics  may not support it.  But if the politics on the whole is too dysfunctional to ascertain the costs and benefits and correctly formulate policy in accordance with these findings, it won't matter whether it is feasible and desirable or not.  It just won't get done.  The political bridge will be just too far.  A way has to be found to cross that political bridge.

My opinion as of this writing is that there is no vision in current space policy; actually it may be far worse than that.  The guy who wrote that says he's pissed.  My question is, why isn't everybody pissed?  This most recent election may not improve matters any.  There is no vision because of the confused nature of our politics.  What Bush does gets cancelled out by Obama.  The next president or this Congress just elected may cancel out this president. In the meantime, we are losing ground.   Money keeps getting spent, but little is accomplished.  If the manned space program is dying, is it because we are dying as a nation?  When will we wake up?  Ever?  If we don't do it, who will?  Anyone?

I am going to keep posting on this subject.  The next project is to study the Columbia Accident Investigation Board pdf file.  I will post on that coming up.