Monday, August 27, 2018

Blue wave?

It is probably a bit of hype.

Polls say this and that.  However, several polls I looked at indicate that the Democrats probably won't win the Senate.

What about the House?

Generic polls on party preference will not likely matter that much.  These elections aren't national, and the national election isn't national either.  The 2016 election featured an election in which the nominee with most votes lost.  I think they are following the same fallacy that gave Hillary the most votes, but not the votes that count.  It's local, local, local.

In other words, they can gin up the polls in Democrat districts, but they have to win everywhere, and they probably won't.


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