Obligatory, 4.6.18

Been spending a lot of time reading up on Elon Musk's plans to colonize Mars.  It still seems fanciful to me for the one reason that nobody seems to mention anywhere--- where's the advantage to doing this?  Is this going to expand the economy, or drive it into bankruptcy?

There is no compelling economic advantage to colonizing Mars.  However, it may be useful as a place to launch expeditions to mine asteroids.  These might be sufficient to support a small colony on Mars by the selling of these ores to Earth.  If there is no trade goods being produced on Mars, it becomes something of a dependency of Earth.  It needs some way to establish itself and stand upon its own two feet.  Otherwise, it can only exist as a whim of some folks with very deep pockets.  Once those people die off, then who steps up to fund the colony?

Mars is a much smaller planet, and it would take a lot less energy to escape its gravity well.  It is a natural place to establish a base for space operations.  That could be a rationale for colonizing it.  Otherwise, what are you going to do there?  Admire the scenery?

Update on same day:

Elon Musk's claims that he could rocket somebody to the other side of the world for a competitive price also seems doubtful, according to this article.

Hype won't get you to your goal.  He needs to keep delivering on his tech, then he can start talking about prices.

Update:

Here's an economic analysis of Musk's claims.  Nextbigfuture seems a bit optimistic.  A hundred of these rockets in a fleet?  Governments balk at those kind of numbers.