Possibility of War

There's been plenty of talk about a second civil war.  How to evaluate that as a
possibility?

The situation may well be quite complex, and not so easily analyzed.  The reason is
that there are complications that extend past our own borders.

Once again, I point to the 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center.  The USA
appeared to be caught off guard by this type of attack.  Therefore, one cannot count
out another attack of a similar kind.  What I am getting at is an attack through a
proxy, such as North Korea or Iran.

Iran is not ready yet, but they clearly want the capability to strike US interests and
probably the US itself.

Such threats by secondary powers cannot be taken very seriously unless they are aligned with a major power, such as Russia and China.  Indeed, these countries are strongly aligned with such powers, and so a combination of forces may well bring on a conflict.

Meanwhile, there are dissident factions within the US, which complicate the matter.

These internal factions may well signal weakness to a potential adversary.  Such may
have been the case during the run up to the Pearl Harbor attack.  A potential adversary
may miscalculate and launch an attack, believing that the USA would not respond with
its full capability, due to its internal divisions.

An attack may be a feint, so as to exacerbate the divisions.  Or an attack which would
not indicate a complete retaliatory blow.  Such is the type of attack that the Norks
are threatening.

Splashing dummy warheads just off Guam may be the type of attack that can hurt the USA's image, while at the same time, it may ward off a full attack.  Merely shooting down
these missiles won't be enough, in my opinion.  Therefore, the attack may proceed.
If the missiles aren't shot down because the system is faulty or incapable, this will
be a defeat for the USA.  That could be devastating internationally.

If they are shot down, then what?  Does the USA have to countenance this type of threat? Indeed, no matter how it plays out, the USA loses something.  A simulated attack means the Norks get away with something.  This may be what they are playing for.

Therefore, I think this is a serious threat.

How does that play out at home?

It may well unite the GOP.  Trump is already making some concessions towards the Neo-cons. The Globalists and the Trumpists may set aside their differences.

However, what will the Dems do?  They may well split off.  This dynamic was seen in
the Wikileaks revelations of the DNC emails.  These were blamed on the Russians, but it
is now being circulated about that it was an internal leak after all.

Regardless of the real source of the Wikileaks, it showed that the Dems are divided.
Many of them would support Sanders.  These represent the ones most likely to dissent
from any military action against the Norks. 

But the Establishment Dems who backed Hillary cannot be seen as weak on national defense.

So, I think that there still would be serious divisions within the country, but there
would be substantial support for the POTUS in the case of a simulated attack.  The USA's position in the world cannot take such an attack lightly.  The appearance of military weakness would damage the USA's credibility around the world.

Therefore, my conclusion is this: there will be no war within the USA, but a war may
break out anyway.  It all depends upon how Russia and China react to the Norks launching an attack on the USA, and how the USA responds.

I don't think the divisions in the USA will be sufficient to overthrow the government.

Nor do I think that Trump's enemies are strong enough to oust him.

A war is possible, though.