Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Strategy to mine an asteroid, part XXII

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Calculations show the habitation sphere will have 154 square meters.  A graphene sphere could be pressurized, so a very lightweight sphere could be built.  First calculations give some unbelievably low mass numbers.  Anyway, it won't weigh much.  It will be designed so that the crew can access components that may need to be tended to from time to time.  It will also contain the supplies and machinery needed for life support.

The coffins should be 3 half thicknesses, bringing up the protection to 87.5%.  This is in compensation for no artificial gravity.  The crew will have to be rehabilitated off world when they get back to the Earth Moon system.  This implies a base of operations, preferably at a Lagrange point.

The base could bring back gravity slowly, like decompressing a deep sea diver, so that he won't get the bends.

Now, let's look at some facts of life, so to speak.  The economics of the enterprise.

If you are going to operate out of a base at a Lagrange point, you need some way to get there and back.  You are going to need the base itself.  Then you need the mining ship.  That looks like at least 3 Falcon Heavy launches.  At current prices, the cost may be too high to consider.  If the costs can come down to 500 dollars a pound, that would make each launch cost 50 million apiece.

The raw materials to make the mining ship and habitat won't cost much.  However, some research and development must occur first.  This is going to cost some money.

The mining materials are going to cost a bunch too because it will have to be fitted to work in vacuum conditions.  Not to mention the general harsh conditions of space.

Let's say the cost of launch is half your cost.  Then you'll have to raise $300 million.  That may be a pretty low ball number.  Who'd be willing to pay to do this and why?  That question must be answered for the technical part may be the easiest part.

Anyway, you have a cost estimate.  An estimate of potential profit is tough to guess at.  If there was any chance at all at getting 50 tons of platinum back, that would give a lot of wiggle room in terms of making a profit off the first trip.  But that luxury may not be possible.  You can also consider other profit centers---like making stuff.  Making stuff that would enable development of other worlds may be of interest.

The goal is to bring 50 tons to the asteroid and bring back 50 tons.  However, the more weight there is, the longer it will take to get there.  Time may be an issue.

Then there is the problem of how to mine the asteroid itself.  This series started out with that firmly in mind.  If you can't mine it, what's the point in going, right?  I haven't worked out those details yet.  You can use plasma type system, or just keep it as simple as possible.

If you use plasma, it will take a lot of energy.  That discussion included using space solar beamed down to the asteroid's surface.  But what if you just make solar panels that circled the asteroid? That's a consideration.

The whole thing driving this is economics.  There has to be a reason to go there.  The reason could be money.  That may turn off some folks, but that's what people will want and be willing to risk life and limb for.  How to make money mining asteroids is THE primary goal.

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