Friday, March 8, 2013

If the dollars falls, how will it happen?

Frankly, I don't know if the dollar fall is guaranteed.  It is almost as if insanity has become the new sanity, and sanity has become insanity.  Looking at this strange phenomenon, the only thing keeping the dollar up is the printing of greenbacks, but that should be the cause of its downfall.  It is defying the law of gravity.  How is this possible?

The debt is being monetized.  Most of the debt is being financed with Fed purchases of debt.  It is money out of thin air.  If this money was not being provided by the Fed, interest rates would skyrocket.  Basically, it works like this:  the debt has be financed some way, so the debt is put on the market but there's no bids to cover the gargantuan amount of debt that must be sold.  Anytime the supply exceeds demand, prices fall.  Since interest rates move opposite to price of debt, as debt prices fall, interest rates rise.  It would rise to backbreaking levels rather quickly, in my opinion.  Therefore, the only thing separating the US from a default is the unlimited amount of monetary expansion.  The monetary expansion pays for nearly all the spending.

You'd think people would understand this and avoid debt altogether.  But there are buyers of debt.  Why?  I can't wrap my head around that one.  The only thing that can explain this is blind faith.  What happens when that faith is shattered?  Collapse.  Will that event ever happen?  I'd say it is inevitable, but that may be incorrect.  All the signs point to it, yet the collapse does not happen.

Some event will trigger the collapse, but who knows what that event will be, or if it will even occur.  It could be an international event, such as debacle somewhere.  Or it could be a sudden crisis of confidence in the domestic situation.

Could the sequester fight bring it on?  Possibly, but in ways that defy the conventional wisdom.  For if the government can't get its fiscal house in order, that could bring on the crisis in confidence.  It seems inconceivable to me that the unlimited spending and monetary expansion can be a confidence builder.  Perhaps this is far more important that people realize.  If the Republicans can't hold firm on the sequester, the dollar is doomed.  Or it could escape somehow.  It certainly seems to me that it should be doomed, but I can't be certain of this.  If faith can move mountains, then holding up the dollar isn't out of the question.

Look, the sequester is only a drop in the bucket.  If you can't even do a drop in the bucket, what reason have you to believe that this government can do anything at all to get this under control?  The sequester is a statement of intention, you might say.  It is a statement of whether this government intends to control itself.  If that control cannot be established, then it may come from an external event that will establish the control.  One way or another, this cannot continue.  The government will have to restrain itself, or be restrained by events.


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