noon:
This may not be what Trump does, but he can ask for some help from Oman and the UAE. He could ask for landing and servicing rights there. If by any chance that this was already in existence, then nothing more than adjusting the flight paths a bit is all that is necessary in order to keep the status quo.
Perhaps the status quo is not acceptable. That's the rub. However, I think that adjusting flight paths can be done while denying Iran what they want. Any further aggression will be seen for what it is.
11:34 am:
Rather chilling analysis here. However, I think what is missing is the actual capacities of the US military.
For instance, the writer said that the drone was knocked down by a 70-80's era missile. Maybe so, but it was an unarmed and undefended drone. The writer is making a comparison that a propagandist would make.
I have been researching some stuff to see what the options are. All options short of war, that is.
There is some talk about doing a re-flagging of tankers and escort operations. However, that would be too risky at this time. This isn't the eighties. The Iranians have upgraded their military assets.
Future drone activity could restrict the operation nearby friendly zones, should there be any. I'm thinking that there are. These drones can scan long distances. The loss of such drones in the future could be minimized or even eliminated, I would guess, while keeping up with their mission as before. No change in status on that count.
No one can convince me that the Iranians really have the military advantage here. The analysis above relies a bit too much on political considerations. Politics won't play much of a role in a short-term conflict. The usual conventional approach should be one-sided. The unpredictable part would be what Iran may do elsewhere.
9:44 am:
Comment:
Seems to be saying that Iran wants to make Trump a one-term president, like Jimmy Carter. What is the likelihood of a significant military operation?
If there were a war, with significant casualties, you know what the Democrat response will be.
This limits the options. I'd say the long-term prognostication is for war. But I have thought that for a long time, and there has been no war.
— Greg Meadows (@BootsandOilBlog) June 21, 2019
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