It is still very early in the electoral process. However, I will make a few brief comments on the political scene.
The prospect for the reelection of POTUS Trump appears better than a fifty-fifty bet. His polls numbers are slowly rising. The economy is doing well. So far, there are no new wars.
The Mueller investigation is over. What remains of it is essentially a mopping-up project. Nothing new and damaging is likely to emerge.
The Barr investigations will help him now. Instead of playing defense, he can play offense. The news from these investigations will harm his opponents.
That's good news. However, the variables of peace and prosperity change the prospects daily. Job growth appears to be slowing down. The Iranians are attacking shipping in the Persian Gulf. Worrying trade difficulties with China roil the markets. The markets gyrate in response. The yield curve indicates weakness ahead. These factors may go against him yet.
It appears he is on track for re-election, but it is not guaranteed.
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