Tuesday, April 16, 2019

The Race Issue And Politics

Updated,

4.16.19:

A bit more study of the race issue and politics, state-by-state comparisons.  This time, combinations of states were compared in order to discover some insight into voting patterns.

A brief description of a hypothesis follows:  voting patterns are largely determined by voter identification.  It is known otherwise as  identity politics.  Even those who deny it are engaged in it.  It all depends upon what the voter identifies with.  It could be race, or it could be something else.  A study of race does not yield a 100% predictor of outcomes.

In other words, race is not the only factor involved.  For example, as seen below, some states are predominately white.  In fact, you could even say that they are lily white.  There are very few non-white persons in the New England area north of New York.  But they vote as reliably Democrat as the most racially diverse state in the union--- California.  Certainly, race is not adequately describing those outcomes.

4.15.19:

early post that day:

It seems that this is all some people want to talk about.  So, let's take a look at race in this country, shall we?

It was mentioned in a comment on a blog somewhere that Bernie Sanders' state of Vermont is nearly all white.  So, is that true?  Seems to be.  According to the Census Bureau, Vermont was 95 percent white in 2010.  The data may be getting a bit old, but why would the numbers change all that much?

I expanded the search into the following New England states (white percentage of population) :

New Hampshire.... 94%
Maine     ................95%
Conn.    ................. 78%
Mass.   .................. 80%
New York .........     66%

New York may not be in New England, but it is still pretty white.

Almost all of these states are reliably Democrat.  Which is curious.  Why would all these white folks vote for Democrats?  But a good many must be, because they are reliably Democrat, and there are so many white folks there.

Continuing on down south a bit..

Pennsylvania .....   84%
Maryland ..........    58%  ( lots of black folks there, about 30%)
Delaware   ..........  69%  ( black is about 20%)

As you make your way into the former Confederate states, the black population goes up as one might expect.    Maryland and Delaware have large black populations, but Pennsylvania, not quite so much.  Yet, Pennsylvania has been reliably Democrat, except in 2016.

So far, I have listed nine states.  Rarely do GOP  Presidential candidates win any of these states, but they are predominately white.  The lowest number percentage-wise, is in Maryland.  Yet, the white percentage is well above fifty percent.

Can anybody explain why so many white folks vote for a party that doesn't seem to like them very much?

One thing is true...  These states are the furtherest from the border with Mexico.  Could it be that most of these people are insulated from the effects of mass migration?  Democrats like to play the race card on the issue, but Latinos aren't necessarily opposed to Trump's wall.  Something else must be at work here.

Update:

same day:

A brief note here...  These numbers are based upon census numbers that are obtained from questions on a census form.  People can self-identify in any manner they choose.  They could be white, but self-identify as black.   What I am getting at is that these numbers may be taken with a grain of salt.

Perhaps Liz Warren can identify as Native American, but her DNA says she's a pale face.


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