Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Recession a "done deal"?

Not so fast.

Every recession is accompanied by an inverted yield curve.  The yield curve only partially inverted for a short time.  Not every inversion leads to a recession, but every recession has an inverted yield curve.

They don't really know where the tipping point is.  It takes too long for monetary policy to have an effect.

Yet, a lot of what he says sounds reasonable.  I'm watching the yield curve for further evidence.  Also, there is news about a downward trend in EXISTING home sales  ( no word about NEW home sales).  Anything else that pops up, I will check it out.





No comments: