It's a class thing, not a racial thing

Updated,

11.9.18:

11:55 am:

A little closer look at the demographics reveals a potential answer to this riddle.  The seventh district is slightly more educated and slightly more poc ( people of color ) than the second.  The difference is slight, but the results were slight, too.

If anything, the Russia narrative really jazzed up the Democrats, and their people were out for blood.  If not for the higher than normal GOP turnout, it would have been a disaster.

I'd say Culberson didn't help himself by not attending the rally with Trump.  It wasn't an ideological thing.  Culberson was no RINO.  He might have been identified with Cruz than with Trump.  He endorsed Cruz first.  But he did endorse Trump in the general.  Basically, he probably did manage to tick off a bit too many people.

The phenomenon described as walkaway, in which blacks went over to the GOP, is not plainly evident here.  My guess is that it wasn't a big factor.

7:00 am:

The latest thing on Betsy's Page is that she is taking Trump to task for mentioning that there were those who lost to Democrats and did not want to be seen "embracing" Trump.

She calls it "petulant" of Trump.  Petulant or not, it may have been the reason Culberson lost.  Culberson wouldn't join Trump at his rally.  Cruz and Trump had a big quarrel and buried the hatchet, yet Culberson and Trump got along just fine.  Why would Culberson get fewer votes than the newcomer, Crenshaw?

The two districts in Houston are nearly identical in income, racial makeup, education, and age.  How do you separate the two out and come up with a reason for the different outcome?

If Trump's rhetoric is such a problem, why did Crenshaw win?

Whatever the reason is for the different outcomes, it is clear that those like Betsy Newmark want to spin this loss as Trump's fault for being such a meanie.

Probably it is more like a bunch of never Trumpers who cannot get over Trump's success.

11.8.18:

Still trying to figure this one out.  Culberson lost to somebody who seems to be an unknown.  Don't see much information on this person.  Is it possible that Culberson ticked off a few too many people?

Looked at the demographics, and they are very similar to Crenshaw's.   Perhaps a few more college educated people in Culberson's district.  The turnout in the Crenshaw's district was HIGHER.  Neither district saw huge turnout.  Crenshaw won more votes than either of the candidates in the seventh district.

If Culberson lost, it may have been because of failure to get his voters out.  I hear that Culberson didn't attend the Trump rally in Houston just prior to the election.  A factor???

Culberson was no RINO.  But he's getting a little old and chubby looking.  Crenshaw in younger.  Culberson's rival was a younger female, but older than Crenshaw.

Lot of talk is made of females winning more offices.  That may be so, but a long time Houston radio personality, Dayna Steele, attempted to unseat a GOP incumbent.  Steele is no spring chicken herself, but being female didn't help in her race.

Chalk this one up to lackluster turnout.  Maybe class differences too, but those aren't as big a factor as I thought.  Maybe one is a bit older money than the other.  But the districts look quite similar.  This analysis could use a bit more work, and I am still guessing.

11.7.18:

Well, let's walk back that title a little.

Here's the reason for the title.  The guy who was the butt of jokes about his eye patch, is now the new representative from Houston's congressional district where I lived just prior to coming out here.

Funny that Culberson lost.  I figured his seat to be safe, and the one that Crenshaw won as being vulnerable.  Culberson was my representative up until about 2010, when redistricting changed the boundaries somewhat.

The significance?  Culberson's district was more well-to-do, and my district was more working class.

Trump is a hero for the working class, and a villain for the well-to-do.  That's my theory of what happened last night.

Race still figures into this, but it may be subject to change.  The truth may leak out eventually, but the media will work overtime to make sure that doesn't happen.