Thursday, October 12, 2017

Why the defeatism?

Originally posted 10.23.16, updated on,

People seem down-in-the-mouth, but consider this time last year.  Many polls were saying Hillary would win,  She didn't.

Earlier this year, there seemed to be a real threat that Trump would be run out of office.  It hasn't happened.  It seems less and less likely to happen.

The foot dragging of Congress recently seemed to reflect badly on Trump.  Yet, he is doing things that will be helpful to the country.  More than that, on most, if not all controversies, he seems to come out on top.

Let's not be so negative.   Things have a chance of improving, believe it or not.

the original post follows

It seems like so many are already conceding defeat, but is this really justified?  Why should anybody believe that Hillary is inevitable?  Some reasons not to be so negative:

  1. Polls are cited as very unfavorable to Trump.  But polls are based upon assumptions that may not be correct.  If there has been any shift in the voting patterns in the electorate, the polls are not designed to catch that.  For instance, the infamous red-blue pattern is assumed in many models used for polling.  Trump is not a dyed in the wool typical GOP type.  Some Democrat voters may cross over and vote for him.  The red blue pattern may not hold this time.
  2. People may not want disclose their true intentions.  The answers to the pollsters may not reflect the true sentiment of the voters.
  3. A large undecided segment.  This could bode ill for Hillary as Dick Morris points out. Undecideds tend to vote for the challenger.
  4. The true state of the race may be obscured by dishonest reporting.  If anyone believes the media is honest, there's this bridge in Brooklyn that you can buy real cheap.
  5. Reading between the lines indicates this race is a lot closer than is being reported.  Why should voting irregularities matter in a landslide?

Don't let the media decide you.  Get out there and vote.

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