Can the economics ever work for space?

The answer is that we may never know because there may never be the effort required to try.

Everything that has ever been done has at one time never been done before.  That is where we are with the commercialization of space.  No one has tried it.  At least not in earnest.  There are some satellites up there that are generating some profits for somebody.

It may forever more be nothing but a niche market with limited prospects.

Just in the past week, it has occurred to me that there may be a way to make energy in space and beam it back to Earth for profit.  It isn't a new idea, as there has been talk about it before.  So, what's new about this?

I'm not sure that there is anything new about it.  I've been thinking about it though, and it may be nothing more than "re-inventing the wheel" to go back over old ground.

What could be different about this is the roundabout way of getting to the point where you can make money.  The entire process would require enormous amount of preparation first.  You can't just launch a satellite into orbit and expect it to make money from solar power.  The launch costs are too high.  The amount that can be lifted is limited.  You will need very massive structures and we don't have any means to do this any time in the near future.

But something new may be possible.

This idea of bringing an asteroid back to EML-1 may be an enabling act that could kick it all off.  But not just one asteroid, as I mentioned in an earlier post.  You'll need a dozen or more of them.  If you do it a dozen times and collect the mass and make a Moonstalk, then you'll have access to lunar materials.  The significance of that is two fold.  First, is that the Moon is a much easier gravity well to get out of than the Earth.  Secondly, you may not need any propellant at all, or very little of it.  That which you do need can come from the asteroid itself.  Hence, everything you need for a continuing presence is there in place once you get it built.  A continuing presence means an assembly line process can be started and that leads to economies of scale and to large scale projects like space solar.

What's more the process can be repeated elsewhere in the solar system.  The potential market is friggin' huge.

Of course, the whole concept has to be proven sound and profitable.  Before you can get there and see if it can be done, many billions of dollars will have to be spent.  To collect just one asteroid will cost $2.6 billion.  A dozen of them plus the rest of what's needed could push the bill to over 100 billion dollars.  That's about what the US spent on the ISS.

But the ISS was never intended to be commercial.  Well, this isn't either until you prove it can be commercialized.  The Moonstalk will have to built first, thus it is an experiment.  It will have to prove itself.  That isn't guaranteed.  The process that's required to get just one asteroid hasn't been done before.  Then, assuming that works, you have to prove you can put several together into an anchor.  And you'll have to prove that you can connect that to the lunar surface.  Once you get to that point, you still have to prove you can operate the Moonstalk consistently and reliably.

The massive cost and risk cannot be borne by the private sector.  It will have to involve the government and that requires someone to take the initiative and try it.  It requires maintaining the political will over a period of time necessary to complete it.  If that can be done, the rest may follow.

The political system maintained a consensus to do the Moon shots of the sixties and seventies.  It managed the Shuttle.  It managed the ISS.  Perhaps this should be the next thing.  It is comparable in costs and duration.  Perhaps a decade or two or consistent effort will do the trick.  At the end of that period, we will know if we can do it or not.

 The justification is that we may never know that we can become a space faring species unless we can make the economics work.  We need to find out.  Our future depends upon it.