Sunday, August 5, 2012

Everything is a hustle, everything is a game.

That last post where Jay Cost examines the polls in the battleground states shows the status of the election game.

Obama is pouring in a lot of money into these states so that he can claim to be ahead where it really matters, in the electoral college.  But he is falling behind in the national polls.  But Obama is right, the national vote isn't what decides the election.   That reminder occurred in 2000, as you may recall.

The point is that it is a game, and the one who wins will be doing what it takes to win.  Is Romney paying attention to what he needs to be paying attention to?  Or is the national polling making him overconfident?

Most people are focusing in on the economy and jobs.  Obama claims jobs were created this past month and his economic policies are working.  Is there enough of a rebuttal out there to show that Obama is wrong?   I've seen some who are saying that this is just statistical noise.  So, I'll have a look at the numbers myself.

Here's the Household Report for June:

There are 195 thousand fewer people working in the past month, this is progress???
Obama is claiming progress off the establishment survey, which is seasonally adjusted.  Statistical noise.  Obama is trying to win with statistical noise and putting his money in the battleground states.  Plus he's getting a lot of help from the media.  The bottom line is that it is a hustle.  The people are being conned.

You may argue that Romney does it too.  Everybody does it.  But that is not the point here.  The point is that it is a game, and that you are required to play the game.  So, is Romney playing a winning game?

It doesn't matter who "should" win the game.  It matters more if you actually win the game.  Take the OJ Simpson case.  If justice prevailed, he would have been convicted.  In his book, Outrage, Vincent Bugliosi said it was a game, and the prosecution lost that game.  They lost it even when the overwhelming evidence pointed to Simpson's guilt.  So, the objective facts won't matter in "the game".  You have to win it, or justice won't prevail.

This game shouldn't even be a game, just like the Simpson case.  Romney shouldn't even have a contest here based upon performance.  But Obama is still in the game.  Why?  It must be because Romney isn't playing the game as well as he should.  Is Romney serious about winning this game?  Bugliosi didn't think the prosecutors were serious.  Maybe Romney isn't either.

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