Monday, January 23, 2012

Predictions about the death of American hegemony may have been greatly exaggerated

Daniel W. Drezner h/t Via Media

excerpts:
  1. The United States is successfully deleveraging.
  2. Manufacturing is on the mend.
  3. A predicted decline in energy insecurity. 
  4. Am I missing anything? 
Comment:

To the question posed with #4, I'd say the main thing is the politics.  If this country switches its paradigm to a social democrat European model like Obama wants, we may get into as deep a mess as they are in.

The deleveraging part is happening in spite of Obama, not because of him.  He is trying to quickly releverage back into greater debt.  The loss of the House in 2010 was a rebuke towards that effort.  If that rebuke isn't sustained in the election this year, the successful deleveraging will be in jeopardy.  Energy insecurity will also be in jeopardy- as so called green technologies like solar and wind - will never be able to sustain a civilization.  He cites a weak dollar, but it's best not get too weak, or the dollar will lose its reserve status.  If that happens, forget about it.

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