Bussard's work. However, what I read on this subject indicates
that the work is by no means assured of success. Bussard believed
in it. He said that it will work. Yet the evidence is said
to be stronger for the Tokomak design than the evidence for the
polywell design. Looking at it on the basis of evidence, it is
understandable why policy makers want to fund ITER, and may not
be quite as eager to fund the Polywell device. If it came down
to competition for funds, it would seem that ITER wins.
But there's another way of looking at it. The polywell design
is nearer to prototype. The ITER project can't build its prototype for
many years. The choice is to spend a smaller amount of money now for
smaller probability of success vs. a larger sum for a higher
probability of success many years from now. That is the choice.
It's like buying a lottery ticket.
If polywell's prototype gets funded now, it may actually be cheaper
over the long run. If it is successful, then ITER is probably not
necessary. The funds for ITER can be diverted in developing Polywell.
The risk is that this smaller investment may not work out. But the
reward could be a big winner. In terms of funding, the risk is a
couple hundred million compared to billions potentially spent on the
ITER project. If you lose, you lose a couple hundred million. If you
win, you save billions. That's the risk v. reward angle.
The above analysis is only in terms of funding. Once you consider the
benefits of having the technology now as opposed to many years in the
future, the reward could be even greater. It has the value of time in
its favor.
Why the hurry? Why not wait and let the science work out the answer?
Why the "get rich quick" scheme? But one thing you cannot ignore is
the value of time. Everyone gets just so much time and that is it.
And having the benefit now is more gratifying than waiting for who
knows how long. Besides, there is no guarantee of what the future may
bring. Perhaps you will need it sooner rather than later. You just
can't ignore the time value of it. Time is limited just as money is.
If the government raised gasoline taxes by 1 cent a gallon and dedicated
the money to Bussard's lottery ticket, would it be worth it? I think
I would be happy to pay a penny a gallon just to see if the thing could
work. Sometimes you do win the lottery.
Running the numbers a bit. For 10,000 miles and assuming 25 mpg, the cost
would be 4 bucks. Multiply that by a couple hundred million drivers and
you've got a big enough stash to play. If it didn't work, it would still be
fun to try anyway, don't you think? A lottery ticket doesn't break the
bank.
Compare that to paying for cap and trade. The benefits to cap and trade
are hard to quantify. But the costs would be more than a penny a gallon.
If polywell works, it can accomplish everything that cap and trade claims
to do plus a whole lot more. It could reduce the cost of living because
energy would be cheaper. And that would amount to a lot more than the
penny a gallon cost.
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