Thursday, September 16, 2010

Gold, what's up with that?

This is possibly a bit late in mentioning, but what the heck is going on with gold lately?  I was just checking this out this morning and gold has just reached a new record high.  The dollar may be weakening a little, oil may be a bit on the high side right now, but I can't see anything obvious that is moving gold.

Gold moves in uncertain times as it is a safe haven. During the depth of the stock market selloff, gold was hitting all time highs then too.  Threats of war can send gold higher.  Although there is some speculation of a big selloff in the stock market, this hasn't happened.  The possiblility of Iran having "the bomb" soon could explain it.  Yet this talk has been going on for years and gold has been up and down during all that time.

Gold is an inflation hedge, but so far no inflation.

There is one possibility that ran across recently.  There has always been a conspiracy theory about banks holding down gold.  There is a rumor going around that the banks have given up on keeping gold down.  If this is accurate, then the conspiracy hounds are on the right trail for once.

We have a big election coming up.  In two other English speaking countries, there was an even split politically.  With no clear direction in politics, it could add up to a bit of uncertainty going forward.  And markets hate uncertainty.  That could be a factor as well.

But perhaps it is just a market phenomenon.  There was a rally this time last year too.  This is the good time of the year for gold.  There is an old saying that goes like this: "sell in May and go away".  But now it is September and everyone knows that big stuff can happen in September and October.   Maybe the markets are smelling something big about to happen.

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