Shadow stats

This one is a shocker, considering all of the rosy scenario economic reporting going on lately.

It was all supposed to be so good, but this site says not so fast.  Much of the growth was from inventories.  Also, the trade figures are not that good either.

Anyway, as mentioned several times already, nobody knows what is going to happen.  Pelosi is out there saying that the Dems will take the House for sure, but how would she know?

If the polls' modeling is wrong, then there is no way anybody is going to predict what is going to happen with certainty.

However, the unemployment rate is as low as it has been in the last 50 years.  Now, that may mean something.  Consumer confidence is also very high.

As for recessions, there has always been an inverted yield curve that precedes one.  At this time, there in no such thing.  In fact, before the last recession which was severe, the yield curve was inverted for quite some time.  Since it hasn't been inverted for any time at all, it is most unlikely that the economy is headed for recession any time soon.

The Fed is raising rates, but be aware that the rates have been very low for a very long time.  No one knows how this economy is going to do when that support is taken away.  We are about to find out.