Friday, March 18, 2016

Utah role in Presidential race

Much has been made of Trump's decision to drop out of the debate in Utah.  But it makes sense for Trump because it is rigged so that Trump can't win.

How?  By having a caucus as opposed to having a primary.  Even Romney criticized this.  Why would Trump participate in a debate in which  he could only risk losing, and is doomed to lose that state anyway?

He can use his time to win Arizona, which is having a primary.

It makes sense for Kasich to stay in, if the idea is to deny Cruz the winner take all threshold of 50%.  Kasich's outside chance is at a brokered convention.  This can occur if nobody reaches the majority of delegates.  A proportional race suits Kasich better in that sense.  Kasich is mathematically eliminated from the majority of delegates.

Cruz is running out of time.  He needs to get all of Utah's votes.  His chances don't appear to be good at the moment.  Each state contest in which he doesn't take all of the votes is one less opportunity for him to make up ground.  Big difference in not getting all as opposed to getting a handful more than Trump.

Arizona is winner take all.


Cruz's strategy doesn't make sense to me.  If he is to win the nomination, he has to show that he can win these reliable red states.  If he cannot win the reliable red states, how can he make the case that he can win the general election?  In order to win the general election, he is going to have to flip some blue states.  How does he do that if he cannot hold the red?

In order to hold the red, he has to win all the delegates.  He needs the majority in Utah in order to win all their delegates.  Isn't his chances better if he goes to the public at large?  If he goes to the public at large, doesn't that pressure Trump in having a debate?  Doesn't that minimize the Kasich factor?  The Kasich factor works best with the 'insider baseball' tactics of a caucus, I suspect.

Why not go all out for a primary where he could use his supposed vaunted persuasive power to sway voters to come over to his side?

Cruz should be raising bloody hell about the caucus and ask for a primary.  Did he?  He seems to be playing into the hands of those who he calls the "cartel".   In other words, I think he may be a fake.

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