campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com
Comment:
Detailed analysis. I won't go into it here, my own thoughts below:
Somehow, Romney has to put away Santorum, and generate some enthusiasm. Romney does well in big cities, even in the South. That may help him there, as well as in the blue states ( maybe ).
Gingrich is depending upon big states like California and Texas. He is now a long shot. If he got out, Santorum might defeat Romney, but how does Santorum do nationally? Santorum can hold the South, but where else can he make inroads? His failure in Ohio cannot be good. But he was close enough, that a Gingrich withdrawal could have been decisive there.
Overall, if you've got to defend your base, which for the Republicans is the South, you're in trouble. If the base is solid, a guy that does well outside the South can be a big plus.
The path to 270 electoral votes is not clear with this outcome. That's because Romney does not own the South. He doesn't generate enthusiasm and he probably won't turn blue states red. Newt won't get out and he hobbles Santorum. Santorum doesn't do as well with the demographics that Barone mentions. It is a muddled mess.
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