Predictions

4/24/25:

I started this post, which turned into an update of an old post. Actually, I wanted to find the beginning of a new category. The categories were supposed to be set up so that old posts like this one could be found. I wanted the blog to be a resource. The idea is not to re-invent the wheel.

The category I looked for was "history of the blog". Actually, this is not as easy to find as it should be. Could it be that I don't even know what is on my own blog?

Anyway, lots of things happened during the Obama era. It would seem that the Trump Administration is trying to roll back some of it. But there's a huge fight to try to stop that.

The fact that we are even in this fight at all is on the one hand a small miracle, and on the other hand, a major tragedy. It should never have happened. But it did. Not only that, Trump's rollback may not succeed. There's no guarantees that it will.

7/12/13:

This is something that I've attempted numerous times.  In the eighties, I wrote some software that I hoped would help predict the outcome of football games.  In the nineties, I wrote some software that I hoped would help me predict how the stock market would behave.  Neither of these worked to my satisfaction.  There was some limited utility to these programs, but weren't marketable.

Nevertheless, the idea of predicting the future course of events has remained an attraction for me.  This blog is supposed to be something like that, but there hasn't always been a focus on that.

There may have been predictions here, but they haven't been catalogued and thus be easily referenced to see if the predictions came true or not.  If you can't measure it, you can't evaluate it.

There was one near the beginning of this year in which I predicted that we will find out if the GOP intends to be a me-too party or an opposition party.  The results are now coming in with respect to the immigration bill being considered in Congress.  They will be a me-too party, but they will try not to appear to be blatantly so.  They have to keep up appearances.

The rest of those predictions linked above also seem to be accurate.  At least for the moment.

Sometimes I forget what the focus of this blog should be.  It should be about the future and predictions fit into that theme.

If there's anything that I would add to those predictions at the beginning of the year it would be this:

Things are not getting better.  Things are getting worse.  There's no reason to believe that things will get better.

How do you measure this prediction?  After all, there could be some dispute over the economy.  Some seem to think the economy is getting better.  But that is a delusion.

Perhaps you could use some objective standard instead of a subjective one.  An objective one would be the statistics, but there's some controversy about that too.  Unemployment going down?  Not really.  No inflation?  Not really.  Budget deficit getting smaller?  Not really.

Here's something that's pretty objective: quantitative easing.  The Fed is doing it or they aren't.  Interest rates--- they are going up or going down.  Stock market too.  Gold prices.

I will rephrase the "getting worse" prediction as follows:  the Fed won't be able to stop quantitative easing.  I think that is a bad thing.

Thus, the subjective things are getting worse.  For other folks, they may appear to be getting better.  Not very useful for predictions.  The goal will be to be as objective as possible.  Memo to self: remember that.

This will be a new category called predictions.  It will also be filed in the history of the blog.

Illegal Immigration, wrt prospective SCOTUS wargaming

Will Trump's executive order ending anchor babies hold up in court?

An aside here. I'm no legal beagle, or eagle, or anything for that matter. Just a guy with opinions.

My opinion is this: If they're here illegally, then the baby isn't legal either. This doesn't mean the SCOTUS will rule that way. My guess is that the SCOTUS is wishy-washy at times, and this may be another one of those times.

Good luck with that one

Rate the odds if you wish; I'd say it's better than 50-50 chance of the latter than the former. 

 

https://t.co/TQyEJk11dv --- From your lips to God's ears. If not, then when elephants fly. It's feasible, but this is DC we're talking about.

— BootsandOil (@BootsandO6892) January 2, 2025

Btw, I saw this on Free Republic. 

Wheels of justice grind slow and fine, so they say

Comment:

Michael Flynn may receive justice in due time, but probably not in time to affect the outcome of the 2020 national election.

Michael Flynn’s new attorney Sidney Powell suggested the special counsel may not have produced classified information relevant to Flynn’s case. Powell intends to obtain it.https://t.co/I7RLB36Qmz

— The Federalist (@FDRLST) June 26, 2019

Obligatory, 3.20.18

The headlines offer nothing of interest, so the pickings are slim.  Actually, the headlines are not good, and writing about them is unpleasant.

What to write about now?

There's definitely a war within the culture.  It is not going well.  The reason for this is that the culture is in the hands of the corporations, who do not support this country.  If the corporations weren't in control, the news would reflect that.  Instead, there is the constant drumbeat of opposition, and this is what drives the culture ever further away from tradition.

The traditions are what made this country great.  Those traditions are being destroyed systematically.

Those who laud this do not seem to care about how this damages the nation.  Evidently, they believe in cultural marxism. 

The future does not look good.

Trump is taking them on, but his fight may be too big, and too late.

This may seem defeatist, but unless this "Army of Davids" arrives soon, the Swamp will win.

Agent Smith and Cypher

Update:
2.26.18:

This war is going on a large, large front.  People might forget that there are local elections.  So, even if Trump survives, he will be surrounded by enemies.

That is why I wised up a bit late, and I will be paying more attention to the local primaries.  You can be assured that they are heavily invested into getting Trump out, and they have very deep pockets, and they are very powerful.


9:30 am:

The Mueller gang wants to find a "Cypher", so that they can bring down Trump.  But Cypher is just another Judas Iscariot.

Let's not compare Trump with Jesus.  However, let's not make a hero out of a traitor.  The traitor is only a "hero" to the enemy, which only uses the useful idiot to bring down the country.

I saw useful idiot on a webpage.  It was in Russian.  Let's see if I can find it again.

Ah, here it is :  полезный идиот

Now, the problem here isn't in trying to save Trump.  It is to save ourselves.  The story of Jesus is apt here, because after the crucifixion, the Jewish state was destroyed by the Romans just 40 years later.

The Jews didn't come back to together in their own state for 2000 years.

But the Jews thought in crucifying an innocent man, that they could save themselves.  It didn't work out that way.

The truth is your protection.  You don't get it by forcing somebody to betray.  If somebody can be forced into making a "confession", it is only because they have no honor, nor integrity.  Such people cannot be considered as heroes.

The Mueller gang is getting "confessions" by force.  These won't hold up over the long term, but they only need to hold up long enough in order to get Trump ousted.



Originally posted 7.18.13:

The nature of betrayal.  Seeking personal gain at the expense of the many.  Cypher betrays his own people in order to help an enemy who enslaves his people.  He does this because his misses the comforts of slavery.  He knows exactly what he is doing but that doesn't matter.  Just as long as he gets what he wants.

The GOP will betray and pass "immigration reform".  Who are they betraying for their personal gain?  The rule of law and those who support it.  (That's for starters.  There's a lot more betrayal here than meets the eye.)  The illegal immigrants broke the law by coming here.  The GOP faction that supports this so-called reform is going to reward the lawbreakers for their lawlessness.  The Democrats will be the beneficiaries and will destroy the GOP and the rest of it that remains true to the Constitution and the rule of law.  They are doing it for personal gain regardless of all the high-minded excuses they are giving for their betrayal.

This is how the nation of the enlightenment will end.  Betrayal will lead to its destruction.

Has Trump gone to the dark side?

Trump ran on what is been called a populist message.  Since the tax cut seems to favor corporations, and since this has somehow united the GOP, could it be that Trump is now fully captured by the very people that he ran against?

I'm not so sure.  Trump did say that he would not campaign for insurgents.  But most of the insurgents have already shot their wad, so to speak.  For him to say that really doesn't say much.

Still, Trump seems to have united the GOP, and is pushing for peace within the caucus.  As long as he can do this, he is pretty safe from the Dems efforts to impeach.  This would still be true if the "wave" election takes place.

The GOP would rather play defense than offense, anyway.  They may let the Dems have Congress, and they will keep the Presidency.  At least for now.

But it may not be a wave election after all.  A united party may do better in the election.  A fractured party that cannot govern will not inspire confidence.

It is still a long time before the elections in November, and a lot can happen.  But right now, the Dems have a long shot in the Senate, and maybe even the House.

We'll have to wait and see, but I think the GOP has a shot at keeping the whole shooting match in place.

If that happens, a lot of screeching at the moon may ensue.  Awwwwwwwww.  /sarc

Don Surber: How the Russian dossier may lead to locking her up...

Don Surber: How the Russian dossier may lead to locking her up...: Reading the transcript from the debate more than a year later, I realize it was America's Margaret Dumont-Groucho Marx moment. Hillary...



comment:



Wishful thinking...



Hillary won't go to jail, as I have been saying all along.  This is because the venue will be DC, and that town is full of partisan Democrats.  Nobody in that town is going to indict Hillary, and even if there was a grand jury that would, no petit jury will convict her.



Unless the venue is outside of DC, she walks.  But, where would the venue be?  That's the trick.  My guess is that they can muddy the waters enough for her to walk.



Hillary going to jail?  Ain't gonna happen.



But try anyway.  Who knows, maybe the public will get it.  So far, they don't seem to be getting it.  The media will see to that.



The guilty walk, the innocent are punished.  It can only happen in a debauched, corrupted society.

The Fake Society

If there is anything that defines this country right now, it is that the truth doesn't matter anymore.  People prefer the fake, so that is what will be served and in great abundance.

Does that mean that Trump himself is fake?  His enemies will say so.  I'd like to defend Trump, but I just don't know how genuine he is.  Again, there are those who will say he isn't.  In my opinion, for whatever that is worth, is that the guy is trying.

But, and this is a big but, he has an enormous amount of headwind to overcome.  The institutional inertia of this government and society is such that a turnaround may not even be possible.  We may well be experiencing an avoidable slow motion collapse, not unlike the fall of the Roman Empire.

For a long time, the Roman Empire was crumbling from within.  Yet, its strength enabled it to endure for quite some time before it collapsed.  In those days, it took centuries.  In these days, which move at a much faster tempo, it is taking mere decades.

Things got so bad in the ancient empire, that, if anyone good showed up, he was quickly mowed down.  The parallels with this country cannot be ignored.  Therefore, if anybody in politics attempts to do something good for the country, the people in positions of power will quickly shoot it down.

What explains all this?  Why would a nation allow itself to be destroyed?  After all, we have a lot that the Romans didn't have.  This country ought to be able to bounce back.  But alas, that is not happening.  Recent events seem to confirm that things are on the downswing again.  Even though the GOP got its tax cut, it is a paradoxical one.  They are counting on the said tax cut to turn things around for them.  Perhaps it will, but I am not so sure.  At any rate, the POTUS' approval ratings are rather stubborn.  So is the right-track wrong-track poll.  If this was to be a good year for the GOP, the signs don't seem to be there yet.  If those signs don't show up, it could be a bad year.

Indeed, a good portion of Trump's own party does not support him.  However, he does have the GOP with him for the moment.  The danger to him appears to be at bay for now.

However, not enough is being done to improve the president's prospects.  The loss in Alabama was not helpful.  It is testimony to the power of the fake society that so many people who voted for him failed to show up and support him in the vote in Alabama.  Without enough friendly faces in the Congress, the hill may become too steep to climb.  The fake society can only become a real society if truth mattered, but that doesn't matter anymore.  Instead, it is whatever the tribe seems to say.  Yes, and the tribe seems to follow their leaders without question.  Whatever the leaders say seems like gospel to these people.  What gets lost is what really matters.  What is left over is fakery dished out by fake leaders for a people who are content with the phoniness.

The big part of Trump's problem is a revolt in his own party.  In order to get unity, he had to sacrifice whatever independence he might have had.  Now he is captive to them, and this could sink him.

Unless he is capable of exerting just enough independence to avoid the pitfalls that may await him this year.

He must avoid war.  Not easy with all the commitments he is bound to, and the ever present push upon him to honor each and all of them, or risk losing that precious support.  The warmongers will push him to war in order to keep his fragile unity.

His best chance is to deliver as much peace and prosperity as there is available.  But will the fake society allow him the room to do it?  Or will the fake society listen to their fake leaders once again, and follow the footsteps of the late Roman Empire?  Will they let a promising leader be destroyed because they are not strong enough to support it?  Is truth too hard, or is the allure of fakery too strong?

Trump got elected to make America Great Again.  The America of days gone by was not the world's policeman, nor the world's savior.  That America followed its own self interest.  It seemed to be what Trump wanted for the country, but the fakes will try to get him to divert course.  If he allows it, he may be doomed.  Even if he doesn't, the fakes may win anyway.  His best chance is not to be fake and be who he is really is.  Hopefully, that will be good enough to stave off the inevitable for at least awhile.

The Deeper Awakening, if it ever comes, must come later.  Incidentally, the prediction that America will fall has been a recurring one on this blog.  Nothing in the last few years has convinced me that this has changed.  Not even the election of Trump, which was a good sign.  But as welcome as that was, it may turn out to be a last hurrah.

Prediction: Trump won't last

Originally posted 8.3.17, updated

8.7.17:

So, Limbaugh is on his show saying that the "swamp" intends to do away with Trump.  Question: So, what do we all do about it?  Just let them do it?

In my opinion, the people behind this are destabilizing the country, and besides that, do not care that they are doing it.  Can things really return to any sense of normalcy after they pull off a stunt like this?

If I am right, then this should be emphasized to the public.  If it is the truth, then it should not be hard to sell.

Fire Mueller's ass.  If you have the country behind you, the swamp is going to have to relent. 

Otherwise, there will be a lot of blood.

Know what I mean, Vern?




8.4.17 :

Wargaming this would show that there would have to be a significant number of RINOS to join the Dems to impeach, and then to convict in the Senate.  The question is this:  do they have the votes?

As of July, there were 240 GOP House members.  The majority is 218.  That means 22 would have to jump to the Dem's side.

Once impeached, the Senate tries the case.  To remove a POTUS requires 2/3 rds majority.  That means 67 votes.  There are 52 GOP Senators.  Fifteen would have to flip.  Not impossible.

I can bet you that these guys are just salivating at the opportunity.  What would stay their hand?  A massive backlash?  One would wonder what it would take to get these people to back off.  I would think the removal of a POTUS without just cause to be highly destabilizing.  Their names would be mud amongst a good many people, I would expect.

At this point, I don't know.  If Graham and company can get the bills that they want that would limit Trump, this would be an important test.  It may be a bluff, but you never can tell until they make a move.  A big clue was the Obamacare vote.  They had seven defections.  That's not even close.

Someone is going to make a move eventually.


original post follows:

Really, really hate to write this.  Couldn't hate it more.  But there's a lot of evidence to me that these guys are going to move Trump on out.

It is just a matter of how and when.

If the House flips to Democrat, they will probably impeach.  The Senate?  They won't protect Trump.

Now, all of us may be getting our buttons pushed, and none of this will happen.  However, look at the facts.  The facts on the ground support it.  If Trump was safe from this, the facts on the ground would be different today.

Sessions would not have recused.  There would be no Mueller.  The legislative agenda would be moving forward.  Trump's people would be getting confirmed.  Instead, his government is being strangled in its crib.

What can be done about this :  vote GOP?  They don't inspire confidence at all.

How does Trump survive this?  I just cannot see it.

Betsy's Page: Cruising the Web

Betsy's Page: Cruising the Web: Aww, perhaps to get ready to celebrate May Day or to commemorate the 100-year anniversary of the Russian Revolution, the New York Times runs...



comment:



Very long post.  I scanned over it until I found something of interest.  There was something that should wake up some people who are asleep still.  I've been trying to tell people that the GOP needed Trump because he could make the party bigger, and win blue states.  He won blue states, but there's a problem.



The Dems have exploited identity politics to a degree that it will become impossible for a GOP candidate to win the presidency in the future unless something happens.



It is rapidly becoming a non-white country.  Nothing can change that.  Unless the GOP can find a way to expand its appeal outside of the white areas, it is not likely to win very much in the future.



Trump didn't do this, according to some.  He did the opposite.   His was the white reaction to left wing identity politics, but it isn't a reaction that we should be hopeful about.



Not saying we should have nominated Bush, who wanted to accept left wing premises.  But we had better overcome the left wing identity politics, or this respite won't last long.

Could the left be doomed?

Why?  They are putting pressure on people not to attend the inauguration of Trump.  Besides that, any support of Trump at all invites punishment.

But what happens if some people buck the pressure and do what they want in spite of the threats?

All the left has going for it is coercion.  If people are no longer afraid of them, they are finished.

But they may be finished anyway.  The only people they got are people who can be intimidated.

If you have the gonads to resist them, but they do not have followers with the same gonads, then who do you think will win an ass-kicking contest?

'Nuff said.

I may be slow, but eventually, I will get there

There have been many times when I figured out something that really puzzled me.  But my pattern is that it takes me a long time, and it is too late by the time I do figure it out.  This may have led me to write that "truth is a slippery thing".  You see, truth is what I seek.  It is just that I am not so good at finding it.  If I had a high quality brain, maybe I could have done something in the world.  If not the world, then my own life.

I look around and I don't feel encouraged.  Maybe it is just me not having things figured out, or maybe I am on the right track and it hasn't been confirmed yet.

Whatever.

In the larger scene, there was a writeup about the "free market system".  Hate to break it to you people, but that is going away.  We have the corporations to thank for that.  As long as the corporations have control over everything, the push will be against them.  This will lead to more government control as a counter to corporate power.

It would not be a bad idea to regulate the corporations, but we are already doing that.

Regulations will fail because the corporations control the government.  Once they lose control, then the socialists will control it.  Then the "free market" will be dead.   It may well be most of the way there already.

Trump's victory won't last.  Am I right?  We'll see.

I dunno, I guess certain people are just shallow

As mentioned several times, it is non-stop Trump bashing out there.

But if anybody bothered to fact check NEWS SOURCES, one might be stunned at the inaccuracies.

Stop and consider that for a moment.  The need for fact checking a news source.

I got into the report on Sarah Palin's speech, which is criticized for what exactly I don't know, but before I could get  a couple minutes into the YouTube video, I found at least two errors.  It is typical of what I've been finding in the anti-Trump bash-a-thon.

So, I am wondering.  Fundamental things, like basic quotes are wrong.  Did the author actually listen to the speech?  As for his readers, do they read more than the headline?   Perhaps not.  But this is from a major news source.  You should expect a high degree of professionalism, not a non-story littered with errors.  No, these aren't typos.  These are actual important points of fact.  So, it is either lazy, hyper biased, or just plain out-and-out lying.

People know that the media is biased, so I am hoping this stuff will get dismissed.  Hopefully the majority isn't this... ( I can't think of the word, maybe stupid.)

But what if it isn't?  Can people be that shallow and refuse to do their homework?

We'll see.  None of the critics seems to be able to get their stories straight.  At least, none of the ones I've seen.  Seems like every time I dig into them, I find a whole lotta nothing.

Happy New Year!

Whoop-de-doo.

Another year in the can.  Another year for the history books.

If 2015 is to be remembered for anything, I'm going to predict that it will be remembered for Elon Musk's achievement in recycling rockets.  The reason is that it will open up space, and make us space faring species.

It may also make Elon Musk one of the most wealthy people, if not The most wealthy person on Earth.

New Years Eve: Reviewing 2015 on Boots and Oil Blog

One feature that I added a couple years back was a "Predictions" category.  So, I just now went back to September and looked at my predictions.

One thing that I should do is to upgrade my predictions a bit.  They are too vague to be predictions.

However, those are interesting and thought provoking posts.  At least they are to me.  Maybe not my audience, huh?  What audience? lol  You know you little snowflakes out there are tougher than you look.  I feel like Rodney Dangerfield here.  I can't get no respect.

One thing that caused the pause in the review process was that I contradicted a prediction made earlier.

What good are predictions if you contradict yourself?

But, the thing to remember that predictions are hard, especially about the future.  So said Yogi Berra.

The window of opportunity will close

The Paris attacks reminded people of 9.11, and 9.11 was really bad for liberalism.  It gave Bush high poll numbers for the longest time.  It lead to some political defeats.  Eventually, the continual drone of leftist propaganda finally managed to close the window that was opened.  The same pattern is playing out now with the upcoming presidential campaign in 2016.

Will the GOP candidates be able to redirect the nation's policies away from liberalism, or will it fail again as it did with Bush?

Bush failed because he managed to fritter away the advantage that a marginalized left wing gave him.  How will these candidates respond this time?

When the window closes after this latest attack, where will we be politically?  This outcome may well be critical to the future of the West.  The wrong answer may be the end of us.

The propaganda is being pumped out a ton a second

You really have to hand it to the left wing goonie birds.  They can really keep a line of bravo sierra alive for the longest time.  Just checked out the Mahablog.  What a load of bull that is.  Can't believe I took the broad seriously for awhile.  ( Only a short time in 2006 when Bush was going amnesty on us. )

I seriously considered taking her link down, but I'd be doing the same thing she did to me when she banned me from commenting on her blog.  That kind of thing is in the province of the left.  Wouldn't want to emulate these goonie birds.  I think they are about to go extinct.

Traditional America is dying

This business with terrorism is probably going to rock the leftists on the heels for awhile, but they'll be back.  Unless the so-called conservatives can land the knock out punch, that is.

What would be the knock out punch?  Recall that George W. Bush had 90% approval for awhile.  If he could have kept that large majority longer, it may have marginalized the left for a long, long time.  A second example would be Reagan, who was successful enough to make the GOP a majority in Presidential politics.  There was the Contract with America, which propelled Gingrich to the top for awhile.  Each one of these lacked staying power, as the left regained its position, and even seemed stronger than ever when Obama was elected.  None of those could deliver the knock out punch to the left, for one reason or another.  Perhaps the knock out punch is staying power.  Not one punch will do it, but a series of punches over a period of time.

If Trump is the new guy the so-called conservatives are going to pin their hopes on, they are going to be disappointed.  The best outcome here may be a Trump loss and to get him from running on a 3rd party ticket.  Trump doesn't have staying power, in my opinion.  Besides, if he really is the guy, who can inherit his throne?  Papa Bush couldn't do it.  Shrub couldn't pass the baton because he was out for the count himself.  Gingrich couldn't keep it together long enough to even keep his Speakership.

Conservatism represents traditional America.  But it is dying out because it cannot truly defeat its most mortal enemy- the left.  Without a champion, the conservatives cannot protect Traditional America, so it most likely will die.

Quick post, 11.18.15, Presidential politics 2016

I'd rather not follow the horse race aspect of the race.  But one notices who is leading and who is dropping out.  Trump on top, still.  Jindal is out.

Carson is having some difficulties.  Trump may be leading, but he isn't sewing it up.  It's still up for grabs.

One thing about Trump:  I think he makes too many unforced errors.  The story about a Trump Cruz ticket is another example.  Of course, it is only my opinion, but Cruz doesn't "balance" the ticket.  Who would balance the ticket better than Cruz?  The guy who is opposite, but not incompatible with Trump.  Don't want to speculate on who that is, but Trump is said to like Cruz because he is in agreement with him 100%.  If that's a correct story, then it indicates to me a lack of understanding of politics.  Trump has to unite all the factions of the party, and he won't do that by nominating a clone of himself.

Trump probably won't be the nominee.  But if he is, he probably won't win the general election.