Yesterday was a very long day. Got home a bit late so there was no posting at the end as I went directly to bed.
As for the truck, it may not be as bad as I feared, but that is under review at the moment. The boss at the repair shop thinks the motor is sound. He may be right, and if he is, that will be good news. The thing I'm worried about is whether or not the engine is about to blow. If it isn't, that's very good news. But I'm not so sure.
One thing that's sure: it's not running right.
Al Fin: "Cowboy Commentary", aka "Eat your veggies" The Flag banner is posted in order to defy those who would make patriotic symbols illegal or disreputable.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Market commentary, 9/17/15
A few things to note first before talking about the action yesterday:
The markets are paper markets. Prices may not have that much to do with reality, but are being manipulated.
The markets are very deceitful. A lot like our society has become. The media takes part in the deception.
Okay, that's all I can think of for now.
As for the market action, it was the same thing. A rally on low volume. It looks like it may recover from the last selloff after all. In other words, bullishness may be returning. Why? Have things really improved? It's the same story as it has been all along. Easy money, but slow hiring. The slow hiring gives them the excuse to keep rates low, but this only encourages the market to send prices higher. But there's a disconnect. The higher prices on the market aren't necessarily leading to a lot of new jobs.
When there's a rally on low volume, what does that do? I think it brings people back, and then the volume returns slowly. But what's going to happen when there's talk of a rate hike? The bullishness gets less ebullient. It may take a rally on high volume in order for the Fed to start raising rates. Even then, the market will continue rising. That's what happened in 2000 when the market peaked. They'll start saying its different now and that the higher interest rates won't matter. The disconnect will become such that all the dumb money rushes in and the smart money leaves. Then the bears will take it down.
At some point they'll have to raise rates. They cannot forever keep money easy. If the market cannot rise on its own, it won't support higher rates. But is that a reason for higher prices? What price would it take for people to feel confident again? They're pumping up the bubble in order to make people feel confident, but the confidence is an illusion because it isn't based upon real conditions. It's fake.
And people are happy with the fakery as long it seems to work. But one of these days it will stop working because it isn't real.
I think people are being sucked in so as to fleece them. It's a con game.
The markets are paper markets. Prices may not have that much to do with reality, but are being manipulated.
The markets are very deceitful. A lot like our society has become. The media takes part in the deception.
Okay, that's all I can think of for now.
As for the market action, it was the same thing. A rally on low volume. It looks like it may recover from the last selloff after all. In other words, bullishness may be returning. Why? Have things really improved? It's the same story as it has been all along. Easy money, but slow hiring. The slow hiring gives them the excuse to keep rates low, but this only encourages the market to send prices higher. But there's a disconnect. The higher prices on the market aren't necessarily leading to a lot of new jobs.
When there's a rally on low volume, what does that do? I think it brings people back, and then the volume returns slowly. But what's going to happen when there's talk of a rate hike? The bullishness gets less ebullient. It may take a rally on high volume in order for the Fed to start raising rates. Even then, the market will continue rising. That's what happened in 2000 when the market peaked. They'll start saying its different now and that the higher interest rates won't matter. The disconnect will become such that all the dumb money rushes in and the smart money leaves. Then the bears will take it down.
At some point they'll have to raise rates. They cannot forever keep money easy. If the market cannot rise on its own, it won't support higher rates. But is that a reason for higher prices? What price would it take for people to feel confident again? They're pumping up the bubble in order to make people feel confident, but the confidence is an illusion because it isn't based upon real conditions. It's fake.
And people are happy with the fakery as long it seems to work. But one of these days it will stop working because it isn't real.
I think people are being sucked in so as to fleece them. It's a con game.
 |
| Scrooge! Yo' time is up! |
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
While I have the time...
Translation: A quick one before I go...
Just got off the phone with da boss. I will work in a car today and maybe for awhile. In the meantime, I will go to the shop again and check it out once again. Not expecting good news.
But that is not the subject of this post. Just 'splaining what's up.
A few thoughts:
I call people stupid and weak, but I am not so strong nor intelligent either. That's really not the point. It's Dunning Krueger on the civilizational scale. The whole civilization has gone incompetent and in failure mode. At least I admit my failures and weak points. Not all the time, though.
Not Dunning Krueger? Civilization is fine? Then call me a jackass, and I will laugh right along.
I write this little ditty because the audience is leaving. I don't care, but please turn out the lights before you leave the room. Bwah, hah, hah!
I can laugh because the joke's on you and you haven't gotten it yet. But even if I'm wrong, and the joke's on me, I can take a joke. Can you?
Just got off the phone with da boss. I will work in a car today and maybe for awhile. In the meantime, I will go to the shop again and check it out once again. Not expecting good news.
But that is not the subject of this post. Just 'splaining what's up.
A few thoughts:
I call people stupid and weak, but I am not so strong nor intelligent either. That's really not the point. It's Dunning Krueger on the civilizational scale. The whole civilization has gone incompetent and in failure mode. At least I admit my failures and weak points. Not all the time, though.
Not Dunning Krueger? Civilization is fine? Then call me a jackass, and I will laugh right along.
I write this little ditty because the audience is leaving. I don't care, but please turn out the lights before you leave the room. Bwah, hah, hah!
I can laugh because the joke's on you and you haven't gotten it yet. But even if I'm wrong, and the joke's on me, I can take a joke. Can you?
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act."
George Orwell.
You may note that Trump is blunt. He tells it like it is. If he isn't electable, the country isn't ready for him, or anyone like him. But, eventually, the country will be ready for revolution if things continue as they are.
Better to have one with an election than with guns, doncha think?
I like to comment upon politics because it is the one place where you can be a complete jackass and still succeed.
You may note that Trump is blunt. He tells it like it is. If he isn't electable, the country isn't ready for him, or anyone like him. But, eventually, the country will be ready for revolution if things continue as they are.
Better to have one with an election than with guns, doncha think?
I like to comment upon politics because it is the one place where you can be a complete jackass and still succeed.
Market commentary, 9/16/15
This one may be a new feature. Kind of a daily commentary on the disaster unfolding on the large in order to match up with the disaster unfolding closer to home. A bit of gallows humor, there.
But I suppose that nobody is amused. Oh, well. You can't please everyone, so you just please yourself. That's a Ricky Nelson song, by the way. Who's Ricky Nelson? Maybe old timers remember him, and well, I am certainly one of those.
I've seen a few market downturns. It looks like this one is still on. The market sells off on volume, and rallies on low volume. Of course, with the paper money regime we now have, the plunge protection team may intervene if things get a little too hairy, but the general, overall theme is down as best as I can tell. It looks like a rally now, but a look at the volume is unconvincing. Well, so much for my less than expert opinion.
Here's a chart for your perusal:
I have mixed feelings about a bear market. I am positioned to maybe make some money if it falls hard, but it isn't going to be as much as I thought even if it does happen. Maybe it would be better if the market behaved well, but nothing behaves well anymore, or so it seems.
A word of wisdom, if you are generous enough to call it that, and I am, cuz I like to have certain illusions about my abilities--- the market is a dangerous place. My exposure to it is limited, quite limited. Perhaps yours should be too. The market is a casino right now. The casino always wins. In the end, they'll get all your money if you keep playing.
But I suppose that nobody is amused. Oh, well. You can't please everyone, so you just please yourself. That's a Ricky Nelson song, by the way. Who's Ricky Nelson? Maybe old timers remember him, and well, I am certainly one of those.
I've seen a few market downturns. It looks like this one is still on. The market sells off on volume, and rallies on low volume. Of course, with the paper money regime we now have, the plunge protection team may intervene if things get a little too hairy, but the general, overall theme is down as best as I can tell. It looks like a rally now, but a look at the volume is unconvincing. Well, so much for my less than expert opinion.
Here's a chart for your perusal:
I have mixed feelings about a bear market. I am positioned to maybe make some money if it falls hard, but it isn't going to be as much as I thought even if it does happen. Maybe it would be better if the market behaved well, but nothing behaves well anymore, or so it seems.
A word of wisdom, if you are generous enough to call it that, and I am, cuz I like to have certain illusions about my abilities--- the market is a dangerous place. My exposure to it is limited, quite limited. Perhaps yours should be too. The market is a casino right now. The casino always wins. In the end, they'll get all your money if you keep playing.
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Home again, 9/15/15
I must be dyslexic to a certain extent. I keep want to writing that it is 6th month instead of the 9th month. Get it? That's not really a joke, okay? I really do that a lot. Especially when I am a bit stressed.
Today started off okay and then went downhill. By the end of the day, I kinda figured my van was kaput. It may well be, or maybe I'm overreacting. Well, the van figured a lot into my plans. If it doesn't make it much further, plans will have to be changed.
Another thing before I forget: the videos I put up don't seem to have a long shelf life. If they're mine they do, but if they are someone else's-- fuggedaboutit. Another reason they may not be working? Don't know if it is just my machine, or it could be a lot of machines like that, or maybe it's a software issue.
Today started off okay and then went downhill. By the end of the day, I kinda figured my van was kaput. It may well be, or maybe I'm overreacting. Well, the van figured a lot into my plans. If it doesn't make it much further, plans will have to be changed.
Another thing before I forget: the videos I put up don't seem to have a long shelf life. If they're mine they do, but if they are someone else's-- fuggedaboutit. Another reason they may not be working? Don't know if it is just my machine, or it could be a lot of machines like that, or maybe it's a software issue.
Truth is its own reward
If you can find it, that is. Very early in this blog, I wrote that the truth is a slippery thing. What I meant by that was that you may think you've got it, and believe that you got it, but you don't really.
If it is the truth that you are after, you will find it eventually. It may be a difficult path, however. It may be fraught with real dangers, as there are those who don't want you to know what the truth is, because in finding it, it will be a threat to themselves and they know it.
The threat comes when there are those who will punish you for doing what is to the best of your knowledge to be right.
I think people aren't facing some truths out of being just plain stubborn, and this is what makes me say that they are being stupid. The stubborn nature isn't strength of character if the cause of it means that it doesn't heed reason. Eventually the truth will out. Refusing to face up to the truth won't change what is false into the truth no matter how much force you bring to bear against it.
That's what we seem to have today. These people think that their wishes will make things true when their wishes have nothing to do with it. It will prove itself if it is worthy. Otherwise, it will fail.
If it is the truth that you are after, you will find it eventually. It may be a difficult path, however. It may be fraught with real dangers, as there are those who don't want you to know what the truth is, because in finding it, it will be a threat to themselves and they know it.
The threat comes when there are those who will punish you for doing what is to the best of your knowledge to be right.
I think people aren't facing some truths out of being just plain stubborn, and this is what makes me say that they are being stupid. The stubborn nature isn't strength of character if the cause of it means that it doesn't heed reason. Eventually the truth will out. Refusing to face up to the truth won't change what is false into the truth no matter how much force you bring to bear against it.
That's what we seem to have today. These people think that their wishes will make things true when their wishes have nothing to do with it. It will prove itself if it is worthy. Otherwise, it will fail.
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