Updated,
8.17.19:
A bit of chart studying reveals that the longer-term trend lines are not disturbed. A sell-off will have to get worse for this to happen.
Still hard for me to believe that there is an increased recession risk when interest rates are this low.
There could be another explanation for this phenomenon. Consider the years of quantitative easing in the last administration, and it may explain what is going on. Maybe. The point is that all that money has to go somewhere. Either the Fed allows the debt to roll over, or they retire it. If it rolls over, then it means that they are buying the debt that they already held. This has the effect of increasing demand for bonds, which reduces the bond yields.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Fed is doing this in order to alter perceptions. In other words, none of this is particularly meaningful as in prior years. No other recession has had quantitative easing to unwind. This is new.
8.14.19:
As mentioned before on this blog, a good recession signal is an inverted yield curve. However, not every inverted yield curve means a recession. But all recessions have had an inverted yield curve.
Confused? It shouldn't be confusing. All it means is that the recession risk is now higher. But nothing is written in stone. Keep in mind that the interest rates are really low already. Unless there is some sort of deflationary pressure that exists out there, a low interest rate should not be "high".
There is no evidence of deflation, according to the inflation figures out there. Maybe there is elsewhere in the world, however.
Furthermore, the stock market plunge is not yet significant enough to become concerned about a bear market.
Even so, a bear market does not guarantee a recession either. The huge drop in 1987 did not cause a recession. The recession in 1990 was not caused by the stock market plunge of 1987. By 1990, the stock market had largely recovered.
Just more hyped up stories masquerading as news. There's no news until there's news. This isn't news.
Al Fin: "Cowboy Commentary", aka "Eat your veggies" The Flag banner is posted in order to defy those who would make patriotic symbols illegal or disreputable.
Saturday, August 17, 2019
Less is more
Despite all the goal setting and striving, it sometimes seems that to be still and do nothing can actually lead to a better result.
This runs contrary to I want to believe. However, what good does all the activity do when you get nowhere? Thrashing about in all directions uses a lot of energy. Less energy applied more intelligently can do more.
Such thoughts occurred to me when I looked at my to-do list this morning. Nothing got done, but it seemed alright that it didn't. Doing things just to be doing something isn't necessarily constructive to any purposeful end.
There's a time and place for everything. The trick is to know when and where and for what.
This runs contrary to I want to believe. However, what good does all the activity do when you get nowhere? Thrashing about in all directions uses a lot of energy. Less energy applied more intelligently can do more.
Such thoughts occurred to me when I looked at my to-do list this morning. Nothing got done, but it seemed alright that it didn't. Doing things just to be doing something isn't necessarily constructive to any purposeful end.
There's a time and place for everything. The trick is to know when and where and for what.
Friday, August 16, 2019
Racism is the new N-word
Comment:
Why does someone need to be "educated" about what racism is? If somebody is a victim of real racism ( as opposed to the imaginary racial grievance-mongering so common these days), ie. examples of real racism: such as lynching or cross-burning, then you don't need any further "training" on what racism is.
Simply disagreeing on a subject is not evidence of "racism". Criticizing a member of Congress for doing a poor job is not racism. Blaming every little thing that happens on race is not going to help anybody with any problem that they may be facing.
The ill-considered charge of racism is nothing more than name-calling. The late Julian Bond once compared it to the N-word. So, instead of using the N-word, it is now fashionable among Democrats to use that ugly word 'racism'. It marginalizes and stigmatizes the target. Just like the N-word did. Julian Bond believed it, so it must be true.
Furthermore, AOC seems to think people are uneducated. However, if you require somebody in authority to tell you what to think, how can you be "educated". An educated person can think for himself/herself.
Why does someone need to be "educated" about what racism is? If somebody is a victim of real racism ( as opposed to the imaginary racial grievance-mongering so common these days), ie. examples of real racism: such as lynching or cross-burning, then you don't need any further "training" on what racism is.
Simply disagreeing on a subject is not evidence of "racism". Criticizing a member of Congress for doing a poor job is not racism. Blaming every little thing that happens on race is not going to help anybody with any problem that they may be facing.
The ill-considered charge of racism is nothing more than name-calling. The late Julian Bond once compared it to the N-word. So, instead of using the N-word, it is now fashionable among Democrats to use that ugly word 'racism'. It marginalizes and stigmatizes the target. Just like the N-word did. Julian Bond believed it, so it must be true.
Furthermore, AOC seems to think people are uneducated. However, if you require somebody in authority to tell you what to think, how can you be "educated". An educated person can think for himself/herself.
Sorry, dummies. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez thinks you need to be re-educated. #AlexandriaOcasioCortez #Racism https://t.co/0T0cfPAidR— Herman Cain (@THEHermanCain) August 16, 2019
Guaranteed to ruin your day
Comment:
If getting depressed is your bag, then read this. Guaranteed to depress the spirits of even the most optimistic of souls.
I've suspected that the schools these days are set up to create idiots. Idiots are easier to manipulate.
If getting depressed is your bag, then read this. Guaranteed to depress the spirits of even the most optimistic of souls.
I've suspected that the schools these days are set up to create idiots. Idiots are easier to manipulate.
Worse Than Ever: Government Schools After 35 Years https://t.co/narirx1SHG— Greg Meadows (@BootsandOilBlog) August 16, 2019
Obligatory, 8.16.19
In the summer around here, if you want to do anything outside, you'd better do it early. Temperatures get hot fast. It's been over 100 consistently lately.
There have been a number of experiments over the last few months. Not much mention here that I can recall at the moment.
Weeds are a problem as well as bugs. I've tried a number of tactics to attack both. As for the weeds, there is a vinegar and salt solution that seems to put the hurt on 'em. The ants are being controlled with a mixture of roach powder ( boron compound ) and pancake syrup. The ants are attracted to the sweet syrupy mixture, but it is deadly to them. The idea is to make baits that will poison the colony. It seems to help, but I still got a few.
Once it gets too hot to work outside, I play around with the computer. All the while, I am trying to minimize the use of the a/c. This year, I am using the a/c more. Probably too lazy to keep filling up the swamp cooler. Yet, there is room to experiment with this too. The a/c pulls the humidity out of the air that the cooler puts in. Both can work together to minimize the use of electricity and water. Or, at least that is the idea.
When I am not fooling around with the off-grid type experiments, I experiment with the video editor that comes with this version of Windows 10. Just this morning, I made another video. It hasn't been uploaded to YouTube, though. Don't know if I'll do that. It isn't anything new, just a variation on a theme.
Nothing much is going on. Too hot around here.
There have been a number of experiments over the last few months. Not much mention here that I can recall at the moment.
Weeds are a problem as well as bugs. I've tried a number of tactics to attack both. As for the weeds, there is a vinegar and salt solution that seems to put the hurt on 'em. The ants are being controlled with a mixture of roach powder ( boron compound ) and pancake syrup. The ants are attracted to the sweet syrupy mixture, but it is deadly to them. The idea is to make baits that will poison the colony. It seems to help, but I still got a few.
Once it gets too hot to work outside, I play around with the computer. All the while, I am trying to minimize the use of the a/c. This year, I am using the a/c more. Probably too lazy to keep filling up the swamp cooler. Yet, there is room to experiment with this too. The a/c pulls the humidity out of the air that the cooler puts in. Both can work together to minimize the use of electricity and water. Or, at least that is the idea.
When I am not fooling around with the off-grid type experiments, I experiment with the video editor that comes with this version of Windows 10. Just this morning, I made another video. It hasn't been uploaded to YouTube, though. Don't know if I'll do that. It isn't anything new, just a variation on a theme.
Nothing much is going on. Too hot around here.
Thursday, August 15, 2019
Solomon: DOJ needs reform
Comment:
Which is precisely why it won't happen, unless something happens.
That something has to happen in the political arena, but there's not a whole lot out there to suggest that this is going to be forthcoming.
Let's put it another way. The public has to want a clean and honest government, or there isn't going to be one.
Which is precisely why it won't happen, unless something happens.
That something has to happen in the political arena, but there's not a whole lot out there to suggest that this is going to be forthcoming.
Let's put it another way. The public has to want a clean and honest government, or there isn't going to be one.
New evidence shows why Steele, the Ohrs and TSA workers never should have become DOJ sources https://t.co/X5kjxjZVlj— Greg Meadows (@BootsandOilBlog) August 16, 2019
Politics of "Shut up" goes into warp drive
Comment:
A little "Trekkie" lingo, there.
The latest thing for the left is to attack the opposition. Why not attack the supporters of the opposition? It really worked for Hillary, now didn't it? /sarc
I'll attack the lefties here, but since I'm not running for anything, it doesn't matter.
A little "Trekkie" lingo, there.
The latest thing for the left is to attack the opposition. Why not attack the supporters of the opposition? It really worked for Hillary, now didn't it? /sarc
I'll attack the lefties here, but since I'm not running for anything, it doesn't matter.
Nolte: CNN, Beto O’Rourke Target Conservative Media as Terrorist Organizations https://t.co/txrm9hV95q via @BreitbartNews— Greg Meadows (@BootsandOilBlog) August 15, 2019
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