Betsy's Page: Cruising the Web: This is the news that the Republicans should be focusing on. Compensation for U.S. workers grew at an accelerating rate in the third quart...
comment:
Actually, this is a change in pace from what I have been reading lately. I have been critical of this blogger recently, but this is a welcome relief to read this post, I must say.
At this stage of the game, there is way too much talk about polls. In this election, polls may be of less use than usual because of the change that may be occurring in the electorate. If I am right, the poll models are wrong, and the results will surprise a lot of people next week.
We'll see.
Al Fin: "Cowboy Commentary", aka "Eat your veggies" The Flag banner is posted in order to defy those who would make patriotic symbols illegal or disreputable.
Thursday, November 1, 2018
Don Surber: Wall Street sees Republican win
Don Surber: Wall Street sees Republican win: CNBC reported, "Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson attributes at least part of the recent stock market sell-off to some investors startin...
comment:
This kind of political reporting is junk.
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out how the market will move, and I was never able to do it. Maybe I am not smart enough. But I don't think the "market" gives a hoop about who wins elections. If the market was really that predictable, I would like to think I would have been able to figure it out. ( and get rich from it )
There isn't much to write about until this mania is over when the election is over.
comment:
This kind of political reporting is junk.
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out how the market will move, and I was never able to do it. Maybe I am not smart enough. But I don't think the "market" gives a hoop about who wins elections. If the market was really that predictable, I would like to think I would have been able to figure it out. ( and get rich from it )
There isn't much to write about until this mania is over when the election is over.
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Shadow stats
This one is a shocker, considering all of the rosy scenario economic reporting going on lately.
It was all supposed to be so good, but this site says not so fast. Much of the growth was from inventories. Also, the trade figures are not that good either.
Anyway, as mentioned several times already, nobody knows what is going to happen. Pelosi is out there saying that the Dems will take the House for sure, but how would she know?
If the polls' modeling is wrong, then there is no way anybody is going to predict what is going to happen with certainty.
However, the unemployment rate is as low as it has been in the last 50 years. Now, that may mean something. Consumer confidence is also very high.
As for recessions, there has always been an inverted yield curve that precedes one. At this time, there in no such thing. In fact, before the last recession which was severe, the yield curve was inverted for quite some time. Since it hasn't been inverted for any time at all, it is most unlikely that the economy is headed for recession any time soon.
The Fed is raising rates, but be aware that the rates have been very low for a very long time. No one knows how this economy is going to do when that support is taken away. We are about to find out.
It was all supposed to be so good, but this site says not so fast. Much of the growth was from inventories. Also, the trade figures are not that good either.
Anyway, as mentioned several times already, nobody knows what is going to happen. Pelosi is out there saying that the Dems will take the House for sure, but how would she know?
If the polls' modeling is wrong, then there is no way anybody is going to predict what is going to happen with certainty.
However, the unemployment rate is as low as it has been in the last 50 years. Now, that may mean something. Consumer confidence is also very high.
As for recessions, there has always been an inverted yield curve that precedes one. At this time, there in no such thing. In fact, before the last recession which was severe, the yield curve was inverted for quite some time. Since it hasn't been inverted for any time at all, it is most unlikely that the economy is headed for recession any time soon.
The Fed is raising rates, but be aware that the rates have been very low for a very long time. No one knows how this economy is going to do when that support is taken away. We are about to find out.
Yakking it up
Bird brains are said to be dumb, but these birds can talk. ( a little )
Clearly, the birds are saying "what are you doing?", and some other stuff.
Clearly, the birds are saying "what are you doing?", and some other stuff.
Holy guacomole, Batman!
Don Surber says that Brazil has "draconian" gun control. Did you know that Brazil also has amongst the most dangerous cities in the world???
Proof positive, if Surber is right, that gun control doesn't work. I am astonished that Brazil has draconian gun control. I didn't know that. Maybe Mexico does too, but that doesn't make Mexico safe.
It won't make us safer, either.
Just goes to show you that the media is hiding the truth from all of us. How many people would fall for more gun control laws when they know for a fact that gun control does not work.
If strict gun control doesn't stop violence in Brazil, why should it stop it here?
Proof positive, if Surber is right, that gun control doesn't work. I am astonished that Brazil has draconian gun control. I didn't know that. Maybe Mexico does too, but that doesn't make Mexico safe.
It won't make us safer, either.
Just goes to show you that the media is hiding the truth from all of us. How many people would fall for more gun control laws when they know for a fact that gun control does not work.
If strict gun control doesn't stop violence in Brazil, why should it stop it here?
Anchor babies
Does anyone really want to solve the problem?
As usual, the answer is probably "no".
Pres. Trump signed an executive order ending the practice, but it is controversial because of the interpretation of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.
How does the amendment read? It is a lengthy amendment, so there's a lot there that is irrelevant to this discussion. The relevant part is the first section---
The child born to a foreign national appears to be lawfully granted full citizenship. However, this does not grant anything more than that.
The problem is what to do with the foreign national, not the child. The child goes with the parents, so if the parents are here illegally, they do not have the right to stay just because of the child.
The baby is not of age in which it can "sponsor" its parents. The kid can stay, the parents must go. All you have to do is follow the Constitution, but I suppose that is too hard.
There is no comment on Trump's exec. order. It is probably legal if the law provides for it. It is also in the amendment that the Congress can make law on the subject, so the POTUS can't unmake the law.
If the law says the parents can stay, that's it. Trump can't do a thing.
None of this means that I like it, nor that the law such as it is, is worth a damn. Just saying that the law is the law.
As usual, the answer is probably "no".
Pres. Trump signed an executive order ending the practice, but it is controversial because of the interpretation of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.
How does the amendment read? It is a lengthy amendment, so there's a lot there that is irrelevant to this discussion. The relevant part is the first section---
All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
The child born to a foreign national appears to be lawfully granted full citizenship. However, this does not grant anything more than that.
The problem is what to do with the foreign national, not the child. The child goes with the parents, so if the parents are here illegally, they do not have the right to stay just because of the child.
The baby is not of age in which it can "sponsor" its parents. The kid can stay, the parents must go. All you have to do is follow the Constitution, but I suppose that is too hard.
There is no comment on Trump's exec. order. It is probably legal if the law provides for it. It is also in the amendment that the Congress can make law on the subject, so the POTUS can't unmake the law.
If the law says the parents can stay, that's it. Trump can't do a thing.
None of this means that I like it, nor that the law such as it is, is worth a damn. Just saying that the law is the law.
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Don Surber: Hey pollsters, don't call us, we'll call you
Don Surber: Hey pollsters, don't call us, we'll call you: A reader pointed out this line from a Power Line post: "I find it interesting that the Times/Siena had to call nearly 38,000 people to ...
comment:
Polls may not be accurate for a number of reasons. One reason is this one provided by this post. If people aren't answering the pollsters, then what validity can the polls have?
Moreover, if the polls' methodology is incorrect, the poll is meaningless. The pollsters have to have models that accurate reflect the populations in which they are working. What good are they if they fail to do this accurately?
comment:
Polls may not be accurate for a number of reasons. One reason is this one provided by this post. If people aren't answering the pollsters, then what validity can the polls have?
Moreover, if the polls' methodology is incorrect, the poll is meaningless. The pollsters have to have models that accurate reflect the populations in which they are working. What good are they if they fail to do this accurately?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)