- There’s also good reason to think that the cellulosic technology isn’t competitive, in spite of what many biofuels companies say. Each company’s costs are based on small-scale plants, and it’s impossible to know how the enzymes and microörganisms used in the process will perform at a large scale, says David Ripplinger, an economist at North Dakota State University.
- Whereas early estimates—the ones that helped spur the cellulosic ethanol mandates—put the cost at $30 a ton, the actual costs are more like $80 to $130 a ton. That means the grass and wood chips required to make a gallon of ethanol will cost $1.30 to $1.48—even before anything is done to process them.
The numbers for the biomass are similar to what I looked up yesterday for the methanol through pyrolysis method. Pyrolysis is simpler and it may be a better way to get biofuel. It may also be cheaper.
Here's some calculations that I figured yesterday based upon my earlier work:
2,865,599,000,000 total miles driven by Americans each year
47,759,983,333 kg hydrogen--- divide total miles driven by 60 miles per kg fuel economy yielding hydrogen needed to satisfy total fuel demand based upon miles driven
198,999,931 acres needed--- found from the calculations of yield per acre
310, 937 sq miles assuming only 1 harvest per year, up to 3 per year--- amount of farmland needed for the biomass
Total farmland in US? approx 1.5 million sq miles
Conclusion--- not infeasible. More work on the economics needed. Can probably beat the 9 buck a kg assumption, but by how much?
