Time to post space stuff again
The link allows me to segue into some speculations of my own. I've done that a lot during the history of this here blog, so why not again? As for the what the link discusses, it doesn't mesh with Musk's stated plan of establishing a colony on Mars. Such a colony seems out of reach. What could make it more feasible?
It seems that a moon-base strategy offers some advantages. It has a shallow gravity well, and a source for materials would be an enabling capability. Why not utilize these? Those who argue that "we've been there and done that", are not thinking long term. It's not about "planting flags and looking cool". It is about using new technology to produce things of value. It makes space travel and colonization a real possibility. A moon base would be an excellent jumping off spot for locations beyond Earth. New resources could be made available. This could become a new industry.
The new technology is the prime area of speculation. How to accomplish all this? SpaceX has its Starship, but can it do all of this? Let's speculate a bit on what else might be useful for development in terms of space travel. One of the hazards of a long trip would be the long period of weightlessness. What can be done about that?
What if you could develop a new spacecraft that could launch from the moon? The Starship could do this, but could it go on long voyages? Perhaps with some modifications, but what if you were to develop something that could better deal with the effects of weightlessness? It seems that the Starship isn't quite up to the task, in my opinion. A trip to Mars would take months. Something that could simulate gravity would be helpful. Without that, the space travelers will be in pretty rough shape by the time they get to Mars. Once there, they would have to work hard to keep everything together. Mars is a harsh mistress.
What about a saucer-type configuration? A saucer could be spun up for artificial gravity. Size would matter. Some folks don't react well to the spinning. Let's limit the spin to 1 RPM. To get fairly close to Earth's gravity would require a diameter of 1800 meters. That would be a whopping 5850 feet. It would seem to be too big to launch. However, smaller object would require more spin, or less artificial gravity. Those technical specifications seem too ambitious for a surface launch. If you were to increase rpm to 2, then it could be much smaller. A 650 foot in diameter saucer spun up at 2 rpm could give you nearly 90% of Earth gravity.
What about construction in space?
If you were to construct something in space, you'd be doing something mostly new. Space stations have been built before. But this would be on a scale unimagined before. Such a thing built from Earth would have to launch from a deep gravity well. What about the moon? Could it be launched in pieces, and then fitted together?
The most realistic possibility would be a station built in pieces, and launched from the moon. It would be 200 meters in diameter, and it would spun up to 2 rpm. Such a station would give 90% Earth gravity, and would remove that hurdle. You could possibly get hundreds of people on board such a mammoth object. It would be about 2000 feet in circumference. That would be an order of magnitude bigger than the Starship.
What if it were a torus shape. Each piece of the torus could be launched from the moon, and fitted together. Such would require quite the infrastructure on the moon's surface to support such a venture.
If this is too impractical, then something else must be devised. A trip to Mars is a long time without gravity. The human body doesn't react well to zero gravity.
Of course, this implies that Elon Musk's idea of putting a million people on Mars is quite unrealistic. Another possibility is to use robots to build the infrastructure on Mars, and to care for a lot of very shaky astronauts who will be in bad shape once they get to Mars. After a long rehab, they may be able to do some work.
A more realistic scenario for Musk would be to use his Starships to develop infrastructure on the moon that would build his next generation spaceship. That ship would be constructed in pieces and flown to space to be fitted together in a huge space ark that could transport hundreds if not thousands of people per launch. Could it land on Mars? Perhaps not. A Starship could be used as a tug, and a lander.
The Starship can't do it all. More is needed. Musk has a bigger Starship 2.0 in mind. Such a ship could hold 1000 people, or so I've read. Let's assume the landing ship is 300 feet tall. Put two of them, end to end, and that is nearly 200 meters in length. It won't generate near Earth like artifical gravity, but it could reach Mars gravity or above. That may be possible. If Musk is thinking it, he might end up doing that.
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