A few words about the recent election in Wisconsin. It seems that the GOP did well there except for the Supreme Court seat. This was a crucial race, as the ideological makeup of the Court there has now shifted in favor of the Democrats.
So what explains this? How is it that conservative ballot initiatives and certain races did well, but the Supreme Court race did not?
Trump posted on social media that the GOP candidate did not seek his endorsement. It is actually worse than that, if the GOP actually wanted to win the race. The incumbent tried to run as a nonpartisan type judge. He actually ran against the base, and especially against the MAGA faction. Turnout for him was below expectation. It may have been a winnable race.
So the never Trumpers cannot blame Trump for this one. In fact, if it shows anything, it shows that the never Trumpers cannot win in Wisconsin. Generally speaking, this is probably the case. Mainly, there may be exceptions, but in those exceptions, the GOP candidates cannot win by running against the base and MAGA. That is a modest interpretation. A more bold interpretation is that GOP won't win at all without the base and MAGA together.
Consequently, a race that runs against Trump, and is tolerant of MAGA might have a chance. But there are some never never Trumpers who wouldn't vote for the GOP without Trump.
The problem is division within the GOP. The best chance for victory is for the factions to unite. The odds of that may be 50-50 at best, and if it excludes Trump himself, it is less than 50-50. Certain defeat looms unless something changes.
Therefore, 2024 may be a problem for the GOP. This is true no matter who the nominee is.
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