As of this writing, it is more than 24 hours before the primary is set to begin. At the moment, it appears that Romney has the thing locked up. Unless there is a big surprise, he will win it. In addition, it is believed by many that this will make his nomination inevitable. With victory at the doorstep for Romney, what can be made of it?
An example of Gingrich's problem can be seen with the comparison that could be made between Gingrich and Romney on the basis of morality. Not that this was a good idea for Gingrich to do this, but evidently, he allowed himself to be goaded into it. Gingrich has been complaining about Romney's lying, but this doesn't help him much when his own infidelity is out there in the news. No matter how much Romney lies, and gets called on it by Gingrich, he can always point out that he has been married to just one woman all these years and it's game, set, and match.
Gingrich may be glib, but he isn't clever. If he wanted to run a positive campaign, he has failed. Romney got him off that game and now Gingrich is into the kind of campaign that he criticized Bush for in 2004. It has become a election of personalities as opposed to an election of issues.
Another thing: Gingrich seems more comfortable going after the media than in going after other Republicans. He got labeled as angry Newt, but that's not how it really looks. Dole looks mad at Gingrich for losing in 1996. A small cabal of renegades got mad at Newt and threatened to elect Pelosi as Speaker in 1998, so Gingrich left. In this campaign, Gingrich let too much of Romney's fibbing to go by him during the last debate. Romney attacks, but Gingrich holds back in the debate. Why not mix it up? On the other hand, Gingrich was more than willing to go after the media. This helped him in South Carolina, but it didn't help him so far in Florida.
What about the general election matchup? Although Gingrich didn't want to go after Romney more aggressively, the same Romney won't go after Democrats the way Gingrich might have. Or would Gingrich have done that? Would he prefer to make his attacks outside of a mano y mano confrontation, as he did with Romney, while focusing on speeches to friendly audiences? Is there something a bit soft about Gingrich? Would Gingrich have really gone after Obama, or would he have just tried to debate on the basis of facts? On the other hand, if Romney acts the same toward Obama as he did against Gingrich, how will that be taken? Can Romney afford to do that? How can Romney run on issues against Obama, after refusing to run on issues against Newt? If he did run on issues, what issues will he run on?
What we could end up with is an aggressive Romney against Newt, but a passive Romney against Obama.
If Newt ran against Obama, he may be passive, but this could work to his advantage. If Obama played his hand too aggressively, it may come across as unseemly. But an aggressive Obama against Romney may not play badly at all. A passive Romney will not generate sympathy. A Romney Obama matchup doesn't look good if it plays out this way. Neither a passive nor an aggressive mode would work for Romney.
Romney had the money advantage against Newt, but that disappears against Obama.
A lackluster economy doesn't help Obama, but as long as peace holds up, and there's no big crisis to have to deal with, he may skate on that.
The big fallacy here is to presume that just any winner in a Republican field will match up well against Obama. Republicans may play rough with each other, but that may not work well against Obama. On the other hand, a softer approach like Newt's approach, which means debating on the issues, could possibly work in the general election. An avoidance of the issues by Obama doesn't help his prospects. A poor showing in an election based upon issues works to Newt's advantage. Obama would be forced to go negative on Newt just as Romney did. One may judge that to be a successful approach to Newt, but maybe not. After all Romney is not defending his record. If all Obama can do is attack Newt, while not defending his record, such an approach may backfire on him. Newt could win in that scenario.
The significance of a Romney victory could well mean another four years for Obama. Romney doesn't match up well with Romney. You can't count on a crisis to bail out a poor election prospect either.
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